The chances of Leeds United earning promotion back to the Premier League this season have taken a massive hit, according to Opta’s latest projections.
At the top of the Championship, it looks like nobody wants to lift the title as all three teams failed to pick up three points at the weekend. The Whites suffered a shocking defeat at Elland Road to relegation-threatened Blackburn Rovers when the league’s top scorer Sammie Szmodics silenced the crowd with a sumptuous finish six minutes from time.
Sammie Szmodics. Who else? 🤩
Mayhem at Elland Road as Blackburn go 1-0 up after 81 minutes 💣 pic.twitter.com/wcYqtiTofH
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) April 13, 2024
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Daniel Farke’s side went the first three months of 2024 unbeaten in the second tier until they travelled to the CBS Arena at the beginning of April. Goals from Ellis Simms and Haji Wright ended a 15-match unbeaten streak in the league.
Leeds United repaired the damage from this bump in the road by driving through even rockier terrain, playing out a controversial goalless draw with Sunderland before being put to the sword by Blackburn last weekend.
Meanwhile, Ipswich Town and Leicester City have been going through their own sticky spell of results, particularly the Foxes, who have lost six of their last ten outings in the Championship. Having led the table for the majority of the campaign, Enzo Maresca’s men are now in second place, one point behind Ipswich, although they do have a game in hand.
As a result of the running order changing, so too have the projected chances of each team returning to the top-flight. Prior to Saturday, Leeds had a 59.3% chance of finishing inside the automatic promotion places. This has now been reduced to just 42.7%, a drop of 16.6%, according to Opta’s latest projections.
Meanwhile, Ipswich had a 50.8% chance of ending the campaign inside the top two before Saturday’s 1-1 draw at Portman Road with Middlesbrough. Despite picking up just a singular point, the Tractor Boys now boast a 64.2% chance of completing automatic promotion, their highest of the season so far.
𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
The Opta supercomputer has fired out its latest projections for the Championship following another dramatic weekend.
Why doesn't anyone want to get promoted?! 🤷♂️https://t.co/kFbByg5Zcd ⬇️
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) April 15, 2024
Writer’s View
Throughout the campaign, Leeds United have always had a better chance of achieving a spot in the top two than Ipswich Town as Farke’s side, on paper, have more quality. It also seemed likely that Kieran McKenna’s men would fall away eventually.
Nevertheless, with three games remaining, Ipswich remain leading the pack. Furthermore, they have easier fixtures across their final matches, hence why Leeds have a lower percentage chance of overtaking them in such as short space of time.
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