Value Betting

10bet-value-betting

We all know that the odds set by sportsbooks determine our potential return in relation to the amount staked. But did you also know that these odds can also be used to calculate the implied probability of particular outcomes occurring?

Occasionally, your data analysis may show that a betting outcome is more likely than the published odds imply. This is known as a value betting opportunity, which enables you to wager at enhanced odds and boost your potential returns.

But how exactly does value betting work, and what steps can you take to identify this type of opportunity? Find out all this and more in this comprehensive wager guide!

Please note our value betting guide is intended for educational purposes only. Value betting is inherently risky and does not guarantee a financial return. Remember to wager responsibly and only engage in value betting if you understand the practice.

What is Value Betting?

As we’ve touched on, value betting relies on your ability to identify odds that are quantifiably higher than they should be.

You can do this by calculating the actual probability of an event occurring, and if this is greater than the odds imply, you can place a value bet that theoretically negates the edge held by sportsbooks.

To provide some context, let’s say that Championship team Coventry were hosting struggling Cardiff City at the CBS Arena. The Sky Blues can be backed in the 1X2 market at 1.80, implying a 55.55% probability of a home win. However, Cardiff are toiling near the bottom of the league and have yet to win on the road in 2024/25.

Coventry have also appointed a new manager in the form of Chelsea legend Frank Lampard, who may inspire a reaction from his players in front of their home fans. So, you actually determine that they have a 60% chance of prevailing, suggesting that Coventry should be priced at around 1.67 in the win market.

At first glance, this wager would stand out as a potential value bet, and one that enables you to wager on a Coventry win at enhanced odds.

How Does Value Betting Work

To help you further understand value betting and quantify opportunities, we’ll need to delve a little deeper into how this practice works.

Firstly, you’ll need to comprehend how sportsbooks initially set their odds. Broadly speaking, they conduct a detailed analysis of relevant form and performance data, to determine the actual probability of each potential outcome occurring.

They then factor in a variable rate of commission (or ‘vigorish’), in order to create an ‘overround’ book that establishes a demonstrable edge in their favour. The final odds therefore reflect implied probability values, which will often exceed a cumulative value of 100%.

The more the percentage rises above 100%, the greater the edge. If you use the above Championship match as an example, we can calculate the implied probability as follows:

OutcomeOddsImplied Probability (%)
Coventry to win1.8055.55%
Cardiff to win4.8020.83%
Draw4.0025.0%

If we add these implied probability values together, we see a cumulative sum of 101.38%. This hints at a relatively small margin and edge for the football sportsbook in question, alerting you to a potential value betting opportunity.

At this stage, you would conduct your own analysis of relevant form and datasets, factoring in recent results, distinctions between home and away performances and real-time injury news. We’ll cover this process in a little more detail below, but this will help you to calculate actual implied probability values and make a final determination.

There’s even a dedicated formula to help determine the precise value of a bet. This will read as follows:

Value = (Actual Probability * Odds) – 1

When you perform the calculation, you’re looking for resulting values that are greater than zero. This is broadly considered to be a viable value bet that’s well worthy of your consideration.

Example of Calculating a Value Bet

Once your analysis has revealed that Coventry actually have a 60% (0.60) chance of defeating Cardiff City at home, you can enter this information into the above formula to quantify your findings. For example:

Value = (0.60 * 1.80) – 1 = 0.08

Clearly, backing Coventry in this instance qualifies as a value bet. However, this doesn’t mean that it will automatically be profitable, so we’d also recommend calculating the expected value of this wager to determine how much you stand to win (either from a single stake or when placing the same wager type over time).

In this instance, expected value (EV) measurements can be determined by using both the implied and actual probability values. This enables you to establish the potential profit or loss within a range, just in case your value betting analysis proved to be inaccurate. Here’s the formula for this calculation:

EV = (Probability of Winning × Payout for Winning) + (Probability of Losing × Payout for Losing)

You can now calculate the expected value of betting using both probability values. Let’s also say that you intend to stake £10 on the outcome of the match between the Sky Blues and Cardiff.

EV = (0.55 * 8.00) – (0.45 * 10) = -£0.10

 EV = (0.60 * 8.00) – (0.40 * 10) = +£0.80

Clearly, you can expect to bank a nominal profit when backing Coventry to win based on the actual probability value. Even if the sportsbook’s measure and the implied probability values are more accurate, you stand to lose just £0.10 on an average stake of £10. Overall, you may determine the reward outweighs the risk and proceed to place the bet!

How to Identify Value Bets?

OK, we hear you ask, but what initial steps can you take to identify value bets and accurate probability values? There are several ways in which you can achieve this, depending on your chosen sport and markets. Here are a few to keep in mind:

1.    Form Analysis

This is universally important regardless of your preferred sport. In the case of football, we’d recommend analysing each competing team’s form over the previous 6-10 matches, while also delineating between home and away performances. When wagering on the 1X2 market, you should also analyse recent head-to-head records and results.

2.    Scoring Performances and Analysis

But what if you want to wager on markets such as BTTS or the over/under on how many goals will be scored during a game? In this case, you should also analyse goal scoring performances, including each side’s goals-per-game average and the rate at which they concede. Consider individual player form and their goal scoring performances too.

3.    Read up on the Latest Team News

Team news can have a significant impact on how odds and implied probability values are perceived. Make no mistake: injuries, suspensions and player rotations can weaken even the heaviest betting favourite, creating an opportunity to engage in value wagering on underdogs if sportsbooks don’t update their odds.

4.    Use Odds Comparison Sites

Of course, successful value betting also requires you to identify the best real-time odds. Remember, longer or boosted odds are likely to be indicative of value, even in competitive events and matches where there isn’t a clear favourite. You can use trusted resources such as Oddschecker to compare odds across multiple UK sportsbooks.

5.    Make Use of Betting Exchanges

While it’s common to use sportsbooks and back bets when engaging in value betting, you should also consider checking out dedicated exchanges. After all, betting exchanges enable you to lay against specific outcomes occurring, opening up a much broader range of potential value bets. Lay bets also cover you in the event of your chosen team losing and the draw when wagering on football matches!

Best Value Betting Sites

In the process of analysing and comparing odds, you may be able to identify the best value betting sites. This enables you to optimise your potential returns and benefit from relevant bonus offers. Here’s our pick of the top four sportsbooks for value betting in the UK!

Best Value Betting Site: 10BET

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Let’s start with 10BET, which we consider to be the best site for value betting. Here, you can access a raft of bonuses and free bet promotions, which help you to unlock further value when wagering on sports and football matches.

For example, you can unlock a £10 free bet when you wager £75 or more during the previous seven days. All qualifying wagers must be staked at odds of 2.00 or greater. Your free bet can then be deployed on value betting opportunities at the exact same odds.

As a new 10BET customer, you can also access a 100% deposit match up to the value of £50. Just note that deposits made via Paypal, Skrill or Neteller aren’t eligible to receive the bonus offer.

Best Value Betting Overround Offer: Betway

Next up is Betway, which is renowned for offering exceptional sports coverage and competitive odds across an array of markets. This makes it easier to identify value betting opportunities, especially when wagering on football and tennis.

We’re also fans of Betway’s so-called “Free Bet Club” too, which allows you to place qualifying wagers and bank a £10 free bet each and every week. This can be used for the purposes of value betting, creating a regular opportunity to wager at enhanced odds.

As you’d expect, Betway also offers an exceptional welcome offer that comprises up to £30 in free bets. Just deposit and wager at least £10 at odds of 1.75 or greater to qualify.

Best Value Betting Odds Offer: Betarno

Betarno is perhaps best known for its recurring cashback offers, which are available across football, cricket, Formula 1 and Rugby Union. These bonuses reward you with 10% cashback on losses of up to £500, on wagers placed during the weekly qualifying period.

So, you can recover some of your losses even when you place losing value bets. Betarno also provides exceptional coverage of the English Football League, with more than 70 match betting markets available even when wagering on L2 games.

As a new Betarno customer, you can also earn a £10 free bet when you deposit and wager a minimum of £15. The free bet can be deployed at odds as low as 1.50, offering access to a higher volume of value betting opportunities!

Best Value Betting Edge Offer: Highbet

When it comes to welcome and edge bonuses, Highbet stands out from the competition. This site offers a demonstrably generous welcome bonus, which comprises a £15 free bet when you deposit and wager just £10.

Both the qualifying wager and the free bet must be staked at odds of 2.00 or greater, although as with 10BET, deposits made using PayPal, Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skrill 1-Tap are ineligible to receive the bonus.

When constructing value wagers, you should note that Highbet also boasts an extensive Bet Builder tool. This is available when wagering on football, tennis, American football, Baseball, basketball, cricket, ice hockey, rugby league and rugby union and can help you to create optimal value bets.

Value Betting Tips

We’ve already touched on how to identify and quantify potential value bets. But what are the best strategies when placing such wagers? Here are some expert tips from The Real EFT team!

  • Strategy #1: Betting on Underdogs: This is the most popular value betting strategy, as underdogs are often undervalued in the win market. For example, Blackburn are priced at 4.40 to defeat high-flying Leeds at Ewood Park in the Championship, but they’ve won five of their eight home matches so far this season and lost only twice. So, these odds and their implied probability value of just 22.72% may create an opportunity to wager profitably.
  • Strategy 2: Focusing on Niche Leagues: Targeting lower and niche football leagues abroad is highly recommended when engaging in value betting. The reason for this is simple, as these competitions don’t receive as much coverage as higher profile leagues and the published odds tend to be less accurate. So, don’t overlook League 1, League 2 and the National League when searching for value bets!
  • Strategy 3: Timing your Bets Right: Pre-game odds fluctuate over time, in line with results, changing form and player injuries. So, it’s crucial that you time your bets well, in order to wager at the optimal odds and maximise your potential returns. Usually, it’s better to back betting favourites as early as possible, while underdogs may see their odds drift in the build-up to the game. In this instance, wagering later may unlock superior value.

Common Mistakes to Avoid in Value Betting

From a strategic perspective, there are also common mistakes and pitfalls to avoid when engaging in value betting. These include:

  • Betting Without Research: Value betting requires significant research if it’s to deliver consistent returns. You’ll also need to follow a similar process when evaluating potential value bets, from calculating actual probability values to measuring the Expected Value of each wager. While not following these steps may save time, it will also lead to uninformed picks and sustained losses over time.
  • Emotive Betting and Chasing Losses: One of the main benefits of value betting is that it requires you to use logic and reason when making selections. This mitigates the risk posed by emotional betting, which occurs when you blindly back your favourite team or chase losses aggressively. Ultimately, you need to follow the value betting processes laid out in this guide at all times, while accepting occasional loss as being inevitable.
  • Misreading the Odds: When tracking and comparing the odds ahead of a particular event, it’s important to monitor price movements and understand the reasons behind them. While some price shifts may occur because of a material change in form or player availability, for example, others could simply be the result of betting volumes and patterns. Failing to understand this could cause you to misinterpret price shifts and make ill-judged value selections.

Tools and Resources for Value Betting

To further help you make the best value betting picks, there are several tools and resources at your disposal. For example:

  • Value Betting Calculator: When evaluating value bets, you should note that there are dedicated calculators for this purpose. The Arb Academy has one such tool, which enables you to appraise different types of odds (such as true probability + soft odds). You can carry out a staking calculation to determine a bet’s EV and the edge that belongs to the sportsbook.
  • Odds Comparison Websites: We’ve already mentioned Oddschecker, which compares odds across a range of sporting events and markets. This site also compares odds from up to 29 UK sportsbooks. The best prices for each outcome are also referenced by the site, enabling you to quickly determine which sportsbook offers the optimal value betting opportunities.
  • Betting Exchanges: Betting exchanges enable you to lay against specific outcomes occurring, rather than simply placing a traditional back bet. When laying an outcome in a particular football match (such as Leeds not to beat Blackburn in the Championship), you can also cover the draw and a Rovers’ win with a single stake. So, lay bets should be considered as part of a value betting strategy.

Is Value Betting Legal and Safe?

Value betting is completely safe and legal in any jurisdiction that has legalised gambling. This includes the UK, where you can engage in value betting both online and in physical bookmakers nationwide.

However, you can optimise your safety by only ever betting at a sportsbook that is fully licensed and regulated by the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC). When wagering online, sites should also boast 128-bit SSL encryption as a minimum security standard, with this safeguarding every deposit and withdrawal that you make.

Sites that are licensed by the UKGC are also mandated to be registered with GAMSTOP. This enables them to offer self-exclusion, through which you can take an indefinite break from gambling and refrain from all activity for between six months and five years.

Similarly, you should prioritise sites that offer access to other responsible gambling tools (such as customisable deposit limits and so-called “time outs”). If you do start to wager outside of your means when engaging in value betting, we’d also urge you to seek out impartial and expert advice from charities such as BeGambleAware.

Frequently Asked Questions on Value Betting

Does Value Betting really work?

While value betting can work to deliver consistent returns over time, profits are by no means guaranteed. In fact, much depends on your analysis of odds and individual markets, and your willingness to carry out detailed research and time-consuming calculations. Make no mistake: execution is key to your long-term success.

What is Value Betting?

A value bet describes an opportunity where the odds of a particular event occurring are actually higher than their published odds imply. Actual probability differs from implied probability values, due to the commission imposed by sportsbooks and each operator’s desired profit margin.

What is a value bet for beginners?

If you’re a beginner, you need to understand the core tenants of value betting and start small when wagering with real money. It takes time to understand the mechanisms of value betting and the required calculations, so you should only commit a small percentage of your bankroll when starting out. You can increase this incrementally in line with experience and profitability.

Can you lose in value betting?

Yes, you can! Like any other type of wagering strategy, value betting can cause you to lose money both in the short and long-term. By following the steps and strategies included in this guide, however, you can optimise your chances of winning while minimising the extent of any losses.

How do you practice Value Betting?

Firstly, you’ll need to calculate an event’s cumulative implied probability values, in search of sums that are lower than or close to 100%. Then, carry out an analysis of a betting line based on the actual probability of one event occurring. You should also perform EV calculations to determine your potential profit or less per wager.