While the EFL Cup may lack the history and romance of the FA Cup, it has been a staple of the English football calendar since the 1960/61 campaign.
The 2024/25 iteration of the EFL Cup has already reached the fourth round stage, with each of the so-called “big six” clubs still in contention to win.
But which team is the outright favourite among the best UK betting sites, and what EFL Cup predictions have our team of experts come up with? Let’s get into it!
EFL Cup Winner Prediction: The Top Contenders to Win in 2024-25
Of the 16 teams that remain in contention to win the 2024/25 League Cup, 13 ply their trade in the Premier League. The other three play in the EFL Championship: namely Stoke City, Sheffield Wednesday and Preston North End.
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City are the outright favourites to win the competition for the ninth time this season. But which other teams are among the frontrunners, and how will this information influence your own EFL Cup winner predictions?
| Logo | Team | MyriadPlay | 10BET |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Manchester City | Price of 5/2 with MyriadPlay | Price of 5/2 with 10BET |
 | Arsenal | Price of 9/2 with MyriadPlay | Price of 9/2 with 10BET |
 | Liverpool | Price of 15/2 with MyriadPlay | Price of 15/2 with 10BET |
 | Chelsea | Price of 15/2 with MyriadPlay | Price of 15/2 with 10BET |
 | Aston Villa | Price of 10/1 with MyriadPlay | Price of 10/1 with 10BET |
 | Manchester United | Price of 10/1 with MyriadPlay | Price of 10/1 with 10BET |
Tactical Breakdowns
Current 2024/25 favourites Manchester City have won five EFL Cups during the previous 10 years, including a run of four successive triumphs between 2018 and 2021. However, they were dumped out in the third round by Newcastle last season, while their mounting injury list may prevent them from prioritising the competition this time around.
Among the favourites, Chelsea may offer enhanced value at around 8.80. Not only did they reach the final last year and average an impressive 63.6% possession per 90 during their seven matches, but the Blues also boast a huge playing squad and can rotate players without compromising the quality of their starting 11.
They also had a 71.0% possession share against Barrow in round three, with Maresca able to start Christopher Nkunku and Pedro Neto in the 5-0 win at Stamford Bridge. Malo Gusto was inverted from right back too, affording Chelsea a crucial central overload throughout.
The Blues have appeared in four finals since 2015, including two of the previous three. Although they’ve won on just one of these Wembley appearances (against Spurs in the 2014/15 campaign), they remain an excellent cup team with a recent history of success.
Player Impact Assessment
In terms of player impacts, it’s strikers that often determine the outcome of EFL Cup games and tournaments outright. Think Dennis Tueart’s stunning bicycle kick winner for Man City against Newcastle in the 1976 final, for example, or Obafemi Martins’ late winner for Birmingham against Arsenal in the 2011 showpiece.
Burnley’s Jay Rodriguez is the tournament’s highest scoring active player, with 18 goals in 33 appearances. However, the Clarets were eliminated by Wolves in the second round of the 2024/25 tournament, so he won’t be adding to his tally this year.
The next highest scoring active player is Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford. He has contributed 16 goals in just 26 games, including a brace in the Red Devils’ 7-0 thrashing of Barnsley in round three. He also top scored with six goals in the 2022/23 competition, as United won their sixth such title.
This was the ninth time since the turn of the century that the tournament’s outright top scorer played for the winning club. However, most EFL clubs enter the competition two rounds earlier than the leading EPL sides, so it’s not uncommon for unfancied and unheralded forwards to head the goalscoring charts.
Benik Afobe top-scored with six goals for L1 outfit MK Dons in 2015, for example, while Liam Boyce won the tournament’s Golden Boot with Burton Albion five years later. You should consider this when making an EFL Cup prediction about the leading scorer this season.
Manager Strategies
When predicting the outcome of EFL Cup matches or picking outright winners, the approach of individual managers is key. After all, Man City coach Pep Guardiola has historically sought to field relatively strong teams in the competition, helping him to win the trophy four times in his eight seasons as manager.
Despite ongoing speculation about his future, Man United Erik ten Hag also tends to excel in domestic cup competitions. During his time at Old Trafford, he has lost just two of 21 domestic cup matches in total, and one from nine in the EFL Cup (against Newcastle in the fourth round last season).
He also won the KNVB Cup twice with Ajax, with much of his career success built on strong and consistent performances in knockout competitions.
Conversely, Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta tends to rotate extensively during the early rounds of the League Cup. The Spaniard has lost four of his 12 EFL Cup matches and not progressed beyond round four since 2021/22, when the Gunners weren’t in Europe and advanced to the last four.
EFL Cup Semifinal Predictions: Battle for the Final
In addition to making EFL Cup final predictions, you can also forecast which teams will make the last four. This requires you to analyse historical data to identify the tournament’s most consistent teams, with Manchester City reaching the last four five times in the previous 10 seasons. They’ve also gone on to win the competition on each of these occasions.
Chelsea have also reached the last four on five occasions, qualifying for the Wembley showpiece four times since 2014/15. The Blues have qualified for the final twice in the previous three years, only to lose narrowly to Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool on both occasions. They were denied by a Virgil van Dijk goal in the 118th minute last season.
The Reds are the third of the 2024/25 tournament favourites to have reached five EFL Cup semi-finals since 2014. They also have a single quarterfinal appearance to their name during this time. Manchester United have reached the last four of the tournament four times, although they’ve also been eliminated in the fifth round or earlier on six occasions.
As for the current 11.00 shots Aston Villa, their recent League Cup record is far from impressive. Despite finishing as runners-up to Man City in 2020, this is the only time they’ve progressed beyond the fourth round in 10 seasons. This run has included seven defeats in the third round or earlier. Here’s a concise summary of each club’s respective performances:
| Team | Winners | Runners-up | Semi-finals | Quarterfinals | Fifth Round | Fourth Round | Third Round (or earlier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Arsenal | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Liverpool | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Chelsea | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Aston Villa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Best Sites to Bet on EFL Cup
In addition to relying on detailed analysis to inform your EFL Cup football predictions, you’ll also need to identify the best tournament betting sites. There are certainly plenty to choose from, so here’s our pick of the top three sportsbooks:
Betiton
Betiton is perhaps the best known sportsbook on our list, and one that offers exceptional coverage of the EFL Cup.
For example, you can access more than 80 separate betting lines when wagering on individual EFL Cup games, including a diverse selection of player markets. Through the site’s ‘Boostiton’ offer, you can also increase the value of your EFL Cup accumulators by up to 77%.
As for the site’s welcome offer, this rewards you with a £10 free bet when you deposit and wager £15. Your qualifying bet must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater.
Pros
- Access more than 80 betting markets across all EFL games.
- The ‘Boostiton’ offer can increase your acca payouts by up to 77%.
- Leverage full and partial cashouts to take full control of your bets.
Betarno
Betarno’s most unique selling point is its diverse selection of match betting markets. In fact, when wagering on EFL games, you can often access more than 300 different betting lines, including diverse combos and totals options.
You can also access a large number of half betting markets across all EFL Cup matches, such as first-half three way handicaps and multiple combinations.
As a new Betarno customer, you can also wager £15 or more and receive a £10 free bet. The latter can be deployed on your choice of EFL markets and lines with odds of 1/2 or greater.
Pros
- Pick from more than 300 betting lines when browsing EFL Cup contests.
- Access a huge selection of totals betting lines and combos.
- Use the site’s ‘Bet Builder’ feature to construct combination wagers.
GentlemanJim
If you want to act on an outright English EFL Cup prediction, GentlemanJim comes highly recommended. This sportsbook offers highly competitive odds on the tournament winner in 2024/25, with favourites Manchester City priced at 3/1 at the time of writing.
The site lets you place combination bets on BTTS and the outcome of each EFL Cup clash too. These are also competitively priced, while you even construct your own using the site’s ‘Build-a-Bet’ feature.
There are plenty of totals betting lines available here too, creating numerous outcomes that have a high implied probability of occurring.
Pros
- Access competitive EFL Cup outright bets.
- Unlock enhanced BTTS and 1×2 market odds.
- Utilise the site’s ‘Build-a-Bet’ feature to construct combo EFL Cup bets.
How the EFL Cup Works: A Beginner’s Guide
As usual, all 92 English League clubs entered the EFL Cup, which for sponsorship reasons was previously referred to as the Carabao Cup.
A total of 16 teams now remain, with the eight fourth round matches scheduled to take place on October 29th and October 30th.
But what are the key tournament rules and how are ties settled? Let’s take a closer look at the EFL Cup format and how this may impact your England EFL Cup prediction!
The Tournament Format
All 72 EFL teams compete in the League Cup, with all but two participating in the first round. The 35 winners here progress to the second round, where they’re joined by the two highest ranked Championship sides and the 13 EPL clubs not involved in UEFA competition.
Of these 50 clubs, 25 earn qualification to the third round. At this stage, the seven remaining Premier League teams who are competing in Europe also enter the fray, meaning that 32 teams will fight for a place in the last 16.
From this point on, no more teams will enter the competition, which adopts a straight knockout format until a winner is crowned. Here’s a summary of the tournament structure and key dates for 2024/25.
| Round | Main Date (2024/25) | Number of Teams / Ties |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 13th August 2024 | 70 / 35 |
| Round 2 | 27th August 2024 | 50 / 25 |
| Round 3 | 17th – 24th September 2024 | 32 / 16 |
| Round 4 | 30th October 2024 | 16 / 8 |
| Quarterfinals | 16th December 2024 | 8 / 4 |
| Semi-finals | 6th January – 3rd February 2025 | 4 / 2 |
| Final | 16th March 2025 | 2 / 1 |
How are EFL Ties Settled?
Over the years, the FA has sought to reduce the number of matches played during a typical EFL Cup campaign. Replays were eliminated ahead of the 1997–98 season, for example, with extra-time and the away goals rule instead used to settle ties. Subsequently, two-legged ties became a thing of the past, except at the semi-final stage.
Prior to the 2018/19 iteration of the EFL Cup, extra time was also scrapped for all rounds apart from the final. The away goals rule was also removed as a potential tiebreaker, meaning that level ties go straight to a penalty shootout after 90 minutes.
As a result, all EFL Cup contests (apart from the semis) are now settled on the night, creating a far greater sense of jeopardy for fans and clubs alike.
Are There Any Other EFL Cup Rules?
Currently, a player can only represent one club during a single iteration of the EFL (or FA) Cup.
So, if they feature for a team during the early rounds of the competition and subsequently move in the January transfer window, they’ll be ineligible to play for their new club in the tournament’s latter stages.
It should also be noted that the League Cup draw is unstructured. This means that there are no seeded teams, so the best EPL clubs can be drawn against one another from the third round onwards. This should be factored into your EFL and Carabao Cup predictions.
The Key Statistics for Your EFL Cup Predictions
Our football experts consider a huge range of factors and datasets when making their EFL Cup forecasts. Of course, some statistics and trend factors are more insightful than others, so here’s a few that should underpin your analysis.
Is There Home Field Advantage in the EFL Cup?
Home advantage is commonplace in football, but it tends to vary from one league and competition to another.
In the 2024/25 League Cup, for example, the home team has won 46% of the ties contested so far. A further 36% have been won by the away side, while 18% have ended tied after 90 minutes. However, the percentage of home victories was considerably lower in 2023/24 (39%), with 27% of all ties ending level after 90 minutes last season.
Intriguingly, two of the last five EFL Cup iterations (2021/22 and 2019/20) have seen away teams enjoy more success than those at home. Away teams won 37% of all ties in 2021/22 (compared to a 28% win-rate for the hosts), while visiting sides triumphed a staggering 41% of the time in 2019/20.
Clearly, home teams have less of a statistical advantage in the EFL Cup than other competitions. Understanding this could help you to identify value betting opportunities when backing away sides.
Team News and Player Rotation
Between 2000 and 2013, there were nine different winners of the League Cup, including Leicester City, Blackburn Rovers, Middlesbrough, Birmingham City and Swansea. During this period, a total of four non-EPL sides also reached the final, including League 2 Bradford City in 2013.
In the 11 years since, however, there have only been four winners of the EFL Cup (Man City, Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea) and none from outside the established “big six”. This reflects the increased squad depth and strength boasted by the leading clubs, while such sides are also increasingly likely to take the tournament seriously.
At the same time, lower league clubs are now looking to rotate players during EFL Cup matches, in order to cope with the demands of league football. This is one of the reasons why only three clubs from outside the Premier League have reached the fourth round in 2024/25.
So, it’s important to keep up to date with the latest football news and schedules, so that you can identify potential player rotations. Also, be sure to follow official club feeds to track the latest injury and suspension news.
Goals-per-game and Scoring Performances
In 2024/25 so far, the EFL Cup has produced an average of 3.16 goals per game. While this is slightly higher than the corresponding figure for this season’s FA Cup (3.13), the League Cup typically sees fewer goals per 90 than the UK’s premier cup competition.
In 2023/24, for example, the EFL Cup saw an average of 2.95 goals scored per 90 minutes. The previous season, this number was noticeably lower at 2.59, while the 2021/22 and 2020/21 campaigns both saw goals scored at a rate of 2.77 per 90.
During these campaigns, home sides have barely outscored their visitors either (if at all). Home teams average 1.53 goals per 90 in 2023/24, for example, with those on the road scoring at a rate of 1.42 per game. The difference narrowed in 2022/23, with home sides notching 1.31 goals per game and those on the road averaging 1.28.
In 2021/22, away teams averaged more goals per game than their hosts (1.45 vs 1.31). Overall, it’s clear to see that most EFL totals bets should be focused around the 2.5 goals line, while it’s unlikely that home teams will significantly outscore their opponents.
Making Informed EFL Cup Predictions: Our Expert Tips
Analysing these datasets and the respective form of competing teams is key when making EFL Cup and football predictions. But what are the other considerations when picking potential winners or placing bets? Here are some ideas from our football experts!
- Pick More than One Outright Winner: Outright betting is particularly popular in tournaments such as the EFL Cup. However, it’s often better to pick more than one potential winner in this market, so long as you can tailor individual stake amounts to guarantee a profit if one of your picks prevails. By backing more than one winner in this way, you can greatly increase your chances of winning, as the current odds imply a 57.02% probability of either Man City, Arsenal or Liverpool prevailing in 2024/25.
- Prioritise the Big Six in Outright Markets: Since Swansea thrashed Bradford City 5-0 in the 2013 EFL Cup final, no team outside the big six has lifted the trophy. In fact, only four sides have won during this period: namely, Man City (six times), Man United (twice), Liverpool (twice) and Chelsea (once). This trend looks likely to continue in 2024/25, as each of these clubs have reached round four alongside Arsenal, Spurs, Aston Villa and Newcastle. So, be sure to prioritise big six clubs when betting outright.
- Engage in Top Scorer Betting: In terms of outright player markets, predicting the tournament’s top scorer can unlock significantly enhanced betting odds. While Watford’s Tom Ince currently tops the charts with four goals, his team have been eliminated, so Chelsea’s Christopher Nkunku offers particular value with three goals to his name already. Seven of his eight Chelsea goals so far have come in cup competitions, and he’s likely to start for the Blues at Newcastle in round four.
EFL Cup Prediction Guide
There are other components that will influence your EFL Cup prediction and betting selections too. These include the functionality of fixed odds and how you select betting lines, alongside the efficiency with which you manage your bankroll. Let’s explore these concepts in a little more detail!
Understanding EFL Cup odds
Fixed odds let you know precisely how much you can potentially win in relation to your stake. They can also be used to calculate the implied probability of a particular outcome occurring, helping you to set optimal stake amounts for each wager. However, odds may be presented in different formats. Let’s take a closer look at the most widely used!
- Decimal Odds: This format displays odds as single numbers to two decimal places. This number relays how much you stand to win for every £1 wagered, inclusive of your stake amount. So, if you successfully wager £100 on Man City to win the 2024/25 EFL Cup at their current odds of 13/5, you’ll bank £355 in total.
- Fractional Odds: In this format, you’ll see two numbers separated by a single slash. The first lets you know how much you can win in relation to the second, which represents your stake amount. In this case, however, the projected return is calculated exclusive of your initial unit bet.
- American Odds: American odds feature three digit numbers accompanied by either a ‘+’ or a ‘-’ sign. The ‘+’ indicates a betting underdog, while the number in this instance reveals how much you’ll win when you stake £100. A ‘-’ sign highlights a betting favourite, with the associated number telling you how much you’ll have to stake to win £100.
Value Betting Opportunities
Given our previous analysis of home field advantage in the EFL Cup, you may be able to identify value bets when backing away sides. Value betting enables you to identify lines where the actual implied probability value of an outcome is higher than the odds suggest. There’s also a formula that can help you to verify such opportunities:
Value = (Implied Probability * Odds) – 1
To offer context, Championship side Stoke City are priced at 5/1 to defeat struggling Southampton in round four of the EFL Cup. These odds imply just a
16.66% probability of a win for the Potters. However, the Sains can’t buy a win in the EPL, while Stoke have only lost one of their previous five matches in the second tier.
So, let’s say that your analysis reveals that Stoke actually have a 25% chance of triumphing at St Marys. In this case, the above formula would read ‘Value = (0.25 * 6.00) – 1’, revealing a sum of 0.5 and a clear value betting opportunity. Any result produced that’s above zero may be indicative of a solid value bet that’s worthy of consideration.
Risk Management Strategies
In addition to targeting the best value betting lines, you must also have a clearly defined and well managed bankroll. Not only should this not exceed an amount you can afford to lose, but it should also cover a predetermined period of time.
To help manage your bankroll, you should set personalised deposit limits at your chosen sportsbook. These can be set each day, week or month, depending on how frequently you wager and your preferred betting markets.
Case Study: Most Surprising EFL Cup Outcomes
In its 64 year history, the League Cup has thrown up a number of surprises and upsets. These apply to both individual matches and the outcome of specific tournaments, but which achievements really stand out?
Bradford’s Fairytale Run in 2012/13
We’ve already touched on Swansea’s EFL Cup triumph in 2012/13, which was also the season that saw League Two Bradford City line up against the Swans at Wembley.
The Bantams defeated three EPL teams on their way to the final, beating both Wigan and Arsenal via penalties in rounds three and four. Aston Villa were also vanquished over the course of a two-legged semi-final, thanks largely to a superb 3-1 victory at Valley Parade.
Ultimately, they suffered the biggest ever defeat in a League Cup final, as Swansea ran out 5-0 winners in front of an 82,597 crowd.
However, this fairytale run saw the Bantams become just the second fourth tier side to reach the League Cup final, and the first since Rochdale in 1962.
Man United’s Woes and Northampton’s Win at Anfield
Six-time winners Man United have experienced significant highs and lows in the EFL Cup. They’ve certainly been on the receiving end of some shock results, including a humiliating 3-0 defeat to York City at Old Trafford in 1995/96.
United only made four changes from the previous league game and were expected to steamroll a struggling York side, which had won just two of its last 10 matches and sat near the bottom of the third tier. However, the Minstermen ran out 3-0 winners at Old Trafford, thanks to a brace from Paul Barnes and additional strike by Tony Barras.
York progressed in the tie too, with Scott Jordan’s goal in the second leg restricting United to a 3-1 win. Surprisingly, the Red Devils suffered a similar humiliation in the 2014/15 campaign, when League 1 side, MK Dons, thrashed an understrength United team 4-0 at the Stadium MK.
United’s northwest rivals Liverpool were also the victims of a giant killing in 2010/11. This saw struggling League Two team Northampton defeat the Reds on penalties after a 2-2 draw at Anfield, with this stunning result marking the nadir of Roy Hodgson’s ill-fated time in charge.
Final Upsets and Surprise Winners
No non-top flight team has won the League Cup since 1991, when Ron Atkinson’s Sheffield Wednesday upset the odds to defeat Man United at Wembley. John Sherdian scored the only goal for the Owls, although the Red Devils returned to lift the trophy for the first time in their history just 12 months later.
Further back in 1968/69, third tier Swindon Town embarked on their own fairytale run to the Wembley showpiece. They faced an Arsenal side that would ultimately finish fourth in the top flight, but goals by John Smart and Don Rogers (2) secured a stunning 3-1 win for the Robins after extra-time.
Another Wembley upset occurred in the 2010/11 campaign, when Birmingham City stunned an Arsenal team that was looking to win their first trophy since 2004.
A late Obafemi Martins goal settled the contest after a mix-up in the Gunners’ defence, although the Blues subsequently finished 18th in the Premier League and were relegated to the second tier.
FAQ EFL Cup Predictions
What factors are most important when making EFL Cup predictions?
When making EFL Cup winner predictions, you’ll need to identify the tournament’s best and most consistent teams over time. When engaging in match betting, be sure to analyse each side’s recent form and any relevant head-to-head data between two competing teams. Team news and the rotation of star players are also key considerations.
Can I use these predictions for betting purposes?
Yes, you can! Our EFL Cup experts use detailed statistical analysis to highlight relevant trend factors, ensuring that their predictions are accurate and relevant. However, we’d urge you to carry out your own research and analysis if you intend to bet real money on specific outcomes.
How do home and away performances impact EFL Cup predictions?
Home teams have won 46% of the EFL Cup ties played so far in 2024/25. However, this percentage is high when compared to previous years, while both 2019/20 and 2021/22 saw away sides win more frequently than their hosts. So, while home field advantage is always a consideration, it’s not as influential when predicting EFL Cup outcomes.
How do injuries affect EFL Cup predictions?
We’ve already touched on the rotation of players during League Cup encounters, but injuries and suspensions can also have an indirect effect on outcomes. In instances where a wagering favourite is significantly handicapped by injuries, you may be able to identify potential opportunities for value betting.
What role does historical data play in making EFL Cup predictions?
By identifying recent tournament winners and the teams that perform consistently in the EFL Cup, you can pick the most likely victors in 2024/25. Historic datasets such as recent form and head-to-head records are also insightful when predicting the winners of individual EFL Cup ties.