Not only is the FA Cup the most romanticised knockout competition in the footballing world, but it’s also the oldest.
In fact, the competition was first contested during the 1871/72 season, during which 15 teams took part and the now-defunct Wanderers team prevailed.
The 2024/25 campaign will host the 144th iteration of the FA Cup, with a total of 653 sides competing in the initial qualifying stage of the tournament. But who are the best UK betting sites tipping to win this season, and what are the most insightful FA Cup predictions from our experts?
FA Cup Winner Prediction: Top Contenders to Win in 2024-25
With the six-round qualifying competition now complete, 124 teams will participate in the tournament proper. The first round will commence on November 1st, 2024, when Notts County take on Alfreton Town and underdogs Tamworth entertain League One outfit Huddersfield Town.
Some 123 FA Cup matches will take place before the 2024/25 winner will be determined. But who are the early favourites, and what sets these sides apart from the competition?
Tactical Breakdowns
Current 2024/25 favourites Manchester City have been the most consistent FA Cup side in recent years, reaching at least the semi-final stage for each of the previous six seasons. They’ve also reached three Wembley finals during this period, winning twice and losing to bitter rivals Manchester United in 2023/24.
City also dominated from a statistical perspective during the previous campaign. In fact, they averaged 67.8% possession per 90 across six matches (only Brighton averaged more), while they were the tournament’s third-top scorers with 15 goals at a rate of 2.50 per game.
Of course, City’s dominance of the ball and territory meant little in the 2023/24 final, as they were undone by United’s compact 4-2-2-2 shape and the use of Bruno Fernandes as a false nine. The Red Devils counter-attacked superbly throughout the competition, registering more goals (16) and goal attempts than City (142) despite conceding 45.7% possession per 90.
Interestingly, these two sides have contested the previous two FA Cup finals, and both will be hoping to enjoy another extended run in 2024/25. They’ll certainly feature heavily in our football predictions!
Player Impact Assessment
Identifying the most likely winner of the tournament’s Golden Boot award is the hardest FA Cup prediction to make. This is because lower league sides play a significant number of games before the top-flight teams enter in round three, affording their players the chance to rack up plenty of goals.
For example, last season saw the Championship pair of Ellis Simms (Coventry City) and Sammie Szmodics (Blackburn Rovers) joint-top score with six goals apiece. A player from the EPL hasn’t top scored outright in the FA Cup since 2009/10, when Aston Villa’s John Carew struck six goals.
This season, our football experts believe that certain players in League One could also offer value in the top-scorer market.
High profile and well-resourced clubs like Birmingham City and Wrexham will enter the competition in round one, for example, with the former boasting £15 million hitman and L1 record signing Jay Stansfield in their ranks. The Dragons’ Paul Mullin could also be a competitively priced pick, especially as he top-scored in the tournament with eight goals in 2022/23. You can follow the latest EFL news through our website.
Manager Strategies
When making FA Cup winner predictions, the pedigree and performance of managers is a key consideration.
Intriguingly, Manchester United’s under-fire manager Erik ten Hag has enjoyed sustained success in the domestic cups at Old Trafford, appearing in two successive FA Cup finals (winning once) and claiming the EFL Cup in 2022/23.
His team has lost two out of 21 domestic cup matches since his appointment at Old Trafford, and one from 12 in the FA Cup. At the heart of this success is his willingness to prioritise cup matches, alongside his tactical flexibility and winning mentality.
Aston Villa’s Unai Emery is another manager to watch in the 2024/25 FA Cup. After all, not only has he overseen a revolution at Villa Park, but he has also won eight knockout cup competitions as a coach (including four Europa Leagues). His side is also highly efficient in front of goal, outperforming their league xG by +8.7 goals during the 2023/24 campaign.
FA Cup Semifinal Predictions: Battle for the Final
Before you make your FA Cup winner predictions, it’s important to analyse historic performances and identify the competition’s most consistent performers. This data should then be measured against the current odds, as this can help you to pick the highest value and most profitable bets.
Over the previous 10 years, Arsenal have won the FA Cup three times. Since their last triumph in 2019/20, however, the Gunners have failed to progress beyond the fourth round. So, it’s very much feast or famine for Arsenal in the competition, arguably making them a risky outright pick at odds of 6/1 in 2024/25.
If you’re looking to wager on the likely semi final matchups or teams to reach the final, both Manchester clubs offer exceptional value. Guardiola’s City have been one of the tournament’s final four teams for six successive years and seven times since 2014/15, while they’ve won the FA Cup twice during the same period.
As for United, they’ve reached the semi-final five times in the previous 10 seasons, while only once failing to progress as far as the last eight. This highlights tremendous consistency and (more recently) Ten Hag’s penchant for cup football, and the club’s historic performances should definitely influence your knockout stage predictions.
| Team | Winners | Runners-up | Semi-finals | Quarterfinals | Fifth Round | Fourth Round | Third Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Arsenal | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Chelsea | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Newcastle United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Manchester United | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Best Sites to Bet on FA Cup
Once you’ve formulated your own FA Cup football predictions, the next step is to identify the tournament’s best betting sites! Here’s our pick of the top three FA Cup sportsbooks and the features that set them apart from their competitors!
Betiton
We’ll start with Betiton, which offers an incredible range of FA Cup match betting markets. These include competitively priced moneylines and spreads, alongside a number of micro bets focused on actions such as offsides, corner kicks, fouls and shots on goal.
If you want to build accumulators during the early rounds of the tournament, you can use the sportsbook’s ‘Boostiton’ offer to increase your potential returns by up to 77%.
As a new Betiton customer, you can also earn a £10 free bet when you deposit and wager £15 at odds of 1/1 or greater. The free bet must be staked at minimum odds of 4/5 and can be deployed on an array of FA Cup markets.
Pros
- Offers diverse match and micro betting options across all FA Cup games.
- Boost the value of your acca wins by up to 77%.
- Qualify for a £10 free bet when you wager £15 as a new customer.
Betarno
When you wager on individual FA Cup matches at Betarno, you can access over 300 betting lines. These include an extensive range of over/under betting lines, correct score markets and the timing of the opening goal.
You can also construct combination bets quickly and easily at Betarno, using the site’s ‘Bet Builder’ feature. This is highly intuitive and enables you to wager at significantly enhanced odds.
When you register for a new Betarno account, you’ll be rewarded with a £10 free bet if you deposit and wager the same amount. Both your qualifying wager and the free bet must be placed at odds of 2.00 or greater.
Pros
- Access more than 300 betting lines when wagering on FA Cup games.
- Leverage an intuitive Bet Builder tool to easily construct combo wagers.
- Earn a £10 free bet when you also wager £10 as a new customer.
GentlemanJim
While GentlemanJim is a relative newcomer to the sports betting market, it’s currently offering highly competitive outright odds for the 2024/25 FA Cup. This is particularly true if you intend to back tournament favourites Man City and Arsenal.
We also like GentlemanJim’s combination betting options, as you can wager on BTTS and the result in a particular match at significantly enhanced odds.
Like Betarno, this operator also hosts a ‘Build-a-Bet’ feature on its site. This is available across all football and FA Cup betting markets, and makes it much easier to build profitable wagers.
Pros
- Offers highly competitive FA Cup outrights.
- Place match result and BTTS wagers at significantly enhanced odds.
- Use GentlemanJim’s ‘Build-a-Bet’ feature to construct unique FA Cup bets.
How the FA Cup Works: A Beginner’s Guide
The 2024/25 FA Cup commenced way back on August 3rd, when the first of six qualifying rounds (featuring 653 teams) got underway. The qualifying rounds comprised teams from the five tiers immediately below the English football league, from the National League to 16 different regional competitions.
A total of 32 clubs have ultimately qualified for the tournament proper, while the first round will also see all League 1 and League 2 teams enter the fray. Eligible Premier League and Championship sides will subsequently enter in round three, at which point 64 clubs will remain in contention.
The FA Cup adopts a straight knockout format, but there have been some interesting rule changes ahead of the 2024/25 iteration. Here’s an overview of the current competition rules and how ties are settled:
- How are Individual FA Cup Ties Settled?: Interestingly, 2024/25 is the first season in which replays have been eliminated from all non-qualifying rounds. Instead, ties from the first round onwards will be settled on the day, either following a 30-minute period of extra-time or a penalty shootout (if required).
- Player Eligibility Rules: In both the FA and EFL Cup competitions, the rules dictate that players can only represent a single club during a particular season. So, if a player represents a lower league team during the early rounds of the competition and then moves to an EPL or Championship club in January, he won’t be eligible to represent his new employers.
- When is the FA Cup Final?: Another intriguing rule change for 2024/25 will see the FA Cup final contested one week before the end of the Premier League season. This adjustment has been made to ease the pressure on the domestic calendar in the wake of the expanded UEFA competition formats, while this is something that should be factored into your FA Cup final predictions.
| Round | Provisional Dates | Number of Fixtures |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | Saturday 2 November 2024 | 40 |
| Round 2 | Saturday 30 November 2024 | 20 |
| Round 3 | Saturday 11 January 2025 | 32 |
| Round 4 | Saturday 8 February 2025 | 16 |
| Round 5 | Saturday 1 March 2025 | 8 |
| Quarterfinals | Saturday 29 March 2025 | 4 |
| Semi-finals | Saturday 26 April 2025 | 2 |
| Final | Saturday 17 May 2025 | 1 |
Key Statistics for Your FA Cup Predictions
Regardless of your own English FA Cup prediction or preferred betting markets, there are key datasets that can help to inform your selections.
But what are the most telling and universally applicable datasets when betting on the FA Cup? Here’s a few to keep in mind:
Team Form and Home Field Advantage
When engaging in any type of football betting, we’d urge you to analyse the recent form of two competing sides.
Although this may prove less insightful when wagering on unpredictable knockout competitions, teams that have played consistently well during their previous six to 10 games will be in confident mood and may offer enhanced value in the 1×2 market.
You should also factor in home field advantage when making an England FA Cup prediction. In the 2023/24 Premier League, 46% of all matches ended with a home victory, while a similar statistical trend can be observed in the FA Cup (48%).
So, the teams with home advantage always have a competitive edge in the win market, even though this may have diminished when compared to historic statistics.
Team News and Player Rotation
No team outside the English top flight has won the FA Cup since West Ham in 1980, and if an EPL team is to prevail in 2024/25, they’ll only play six matches.
However, the FA Cup runs alongside the second half the Premier League season and the business end of the UEFA competitions, and some managers may feel compelled to prioritise these tournaments as the campaign progresses.
So, to manage their players’ load, coaches may rest and rotate their star performers during FA Cup matches. This may afford an underdog the advantage in a knockout tie and create an opportunity to engage in value betting.
By following the latest team news and identifying matches where managers are likely to rest players, you can make informed picks over time.
Goals-per-game and Scoring Performances
If you’re going to access the over/under on how many goals will be scored during a particular FA Cup match, you’ll need to analyse historic scoring performances.
For example, the 2023/24 FA Cup saw an average of 3.48 goals scored per 90 minutes. This included an average of 1.92 home goals per 90 during the competition, while away teams scored at a rate of 1.56 goals per game.
These figures are influenced by the prevalence of high scoring matches during the tournament’s earlier rounds. However, this goals-per-game rate compares favourably to the EPL (3.28) and all of Europe’s big five leagues.
Last season, a staggering 85% of FA Cup matches also saw over 1.5 goals scored. Some 68% of games produced in excess of 2.5 goals too, and this insight can unlock some valuable picks during 2024/25.
Making Informed FA Cup Predictions: Expert Tips
While understanding these datasets is key, you’ll also need to use analysis as part of a broader and more comprehensive betting strategy. Here are some tips from our football experts to help in this regard!
- Establish a Clear Unit Bet Strategy: Given the sheer range of available FA Cup betting markets, it’s important that you manage your bankroll carefully. Key to this is your ability to set a clearly defined unit bet strategy, which determines how much you stake per betting line. You can adopt a flat betting strategy and wager the same amount on each wager, or use the ‘Kelly Criterion’ method to set the optimal stake for each market. Regardless, having a well-thought out strategy is crucial.
- Prioritise ‘Big Six’ Betting: Not only is it now 44 years since a non-top flight team won the FA Cup, but only one side outside of the so-called “big six” has prevailed in the previous 11 years (Leicester City). Since the turn of the century, Portsmouth (2008) and Wigan Athletic (2013) are the only other non-big-six clubs to lift the FA Cup, so we’d recommend prioritising Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs in the outright betting market.
- Pick More Than One Outright Winner: If you do engage in outright betting, consider distributing your stake across more than one potential winner. The key is to create optimal stake amounts based on the published odds, so that you’re guaranteed at least a nominal profit if one of your picks is successful. This can dramatically increase your chances of winning, as backing both Man City and Arsenal to win unlocks a cumulative implied probability value of 38.21%.
FA Cup Prediction Guide
When making FA Cup winner predictions, there are a number of key factors to consider. These include the function of odds and risk management, which have a direct bearing on your returns and exposure to risk. Let’s explore these in a little more detail.
Understanding FA Cup odds
FA Cup outright and match odds can be used to garner two key snippets of information., including how much you stand to win in relation to your stake. When using decimal odds, for example, you’ll see a single number to two decimal places, and this relays how much you could potentially win for every £1 wagered (inclusive of your stake).
You can also leverage odds to calculate the implied probability of a particular outcome occurring. This can be done using a simple mathematical formula:
(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability
For example, you can currently back Man City to win the 2024/25 FA Cup at a price of 3.95. Using the equation above, we divide one by 3.95 to create a value of 0.2531. When you multiply this by 100%, you can see that the Citizens have a 25.31% probability of triumphing outright.
Value Betting Opportunities
We’ve already touched on ‘value betting’, which involves the identification of FA Cup outcomes where the implied probability value is higher than the odds suggest.
This requires you to carry out your own form and scoring analysis of two competing teams, while you should also consider their recent head-to-head record (if applicable). If you determine that one side has a better chance of winning than is implied by the odds, you can perform the following calculation to see if you’ve uncovered a value betting opportunity.
Value = (Implied Probability * Odds) – 1
So long as the resulting value is higher than zero, the line that you’ve analysed can be considered a value bet. For example, League Two leaders Port Value are priced at around 2.79 to defeat L1 outfit Barnsely at Vale Park, implying a 35.84% probability of them achieving this aim.
However, they’ve taken 23 points from the last 30 available and lost only one of their previous 10 games. So, you may believe that this and home field advantage affords them a 55% chance of winning, at which point the calculation would read as follows: Value = (0.55 * 2.79) – 1. This reveals a value of 0.5345 and prospective value bet.
Risk Management Strategies
We’ve already spoken about how a unit betting strategy can help with responsible bankroll management. This is also key to risk management, as you look to minimise losses and wager within your means at all times.
Because of this, we’d recommend setting personalised deposit limits through your chosen sportsbook. These can be adjusted to suit your betting frequency and base unit bet, especially as these factors change over time.
Case Study: Most Surprising FA Cup Outcomes
Upsets and giant killings are key to the appeal of the FA Cup, with every year seeming to produce at least one or two surprise results.
From Wrexham’s famous victory over defending league champions Arsenal in 1992 to Bradford’s stunning 4-2 win at Stamford Bridge in 2015, these underdog stories capture attention and interest from across the globe.
But what contributes to these so-called “cupsets”, and what are the trend factors that may help you to identify potential shocks ahead of time? Let’s find out!
What Factors Produce an FA Cup Upset?
Firstly, it should be noted that the FA Cup draw is unstructured. So, even when Premier League teams enter the competition in round three, they won’t be seeded and can be drawn to play any remaining opponent (including each other).
This creates the opportunity for cup upsets, but how can lower league teams take advantage of this? Well, strong home form is a key consideration here, as the majority of giant killings take place when the favourites are on the road.
Last year, for example, National League South team Maidstone United reached the FA Cup fifth round, while boasting a 100% record in home matches. They were 15% more likely to win at home in the competition, and 50% less likely to concede during 2023/24.
Another factor is the way in which favourites approach a potential banana skin. History tells us that sides like Arsenal and Chelsea are demonstrably more likely to rotate players during the early FA Cup rounds, making them more vulnerable to potential upsets.
The Increased Likeliness of Cup Upsets
In the 47 years between 1947 and 1994, a total of five non-league teams reached at least the fifth round of the FA Cup.
Since 2010, however, six non-league sides have achieved the same objective, including five teams from tier five (the National League) and one from the National League South.
Two of these sides have also beaten Premier League outfits during their heroic runs. Luton Town stunned Norwich City at Carrow Road in 2012/13, becoming the first non-league side to defeat a top flight opponent since 1989 in the process. Lincoln repeated this feat in 2016–17, beating EPL outfit Burnley 1–0 at Turf Moor and going on to reach the last eight.
Clearly, upsets are becoming more frequent in the FA Cup, while non-league clubs appear far better equipped to go deep into the tournament in the modern age.
What are the Biggest FA Cup Upsets?
Interestingly, Luton Town’s surprise win at Norwich in 2013 represents one of the biggest FA Cup shocks of all-time. After all, some 85 places separated the Canaries and the Hatters prior to the match, while Luton were on the brink of entering into administration.
A similarly mammoth 80 places separated David Moyes’ Everton side and Shrewsbury Town when they met at Gay Meadow in January 2003.
The Toffees also picked a strong side for the FA Cup third round match, with Thomas Gravesen and precocious forward Wayne Rooney included in the starting 11. However, the Shrews (who were managed by former Everton legend Kevin Ratcliffe) stunned their opponents 2-1, with veteran skipper Nigel Jemson scoring both goals.
When Wrexham hosted Arsenal in the FA Cup third round in January 1992, they did so having placed bottom of the old Fourth Division the previous season. Conversely, the Gunners were the defending league champions, but despite taking the lead in Wales, goals by veteran Mickey Thomas and striker Steve Watkin secured a famous 2-1 victory for the Dragons.
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FAQ FA Cup Predictions
What factors are most important when making FA Cup predictions?
As we’ve touched on, home field advantage is key when making FA Cup football predictions, as are factors like player rotation and historic head-to-head results between competing teams. Be sure to analyse scoring data and goals-per-game averages too.
Can I use these predictions for betting purposes?
You sure can! The predictions made by our football experts are highly insightful and built on detailed statistical analysis. So, they can be used to inform your betting selections, although we’d also urge you to carry out your own data analysis and odds comparison.
How do home and away performances impact predictions?
Home field advantage is prevalent across all team sports and competitions. The FA Cup is no exception to this rule, with some 48% of all matches played in 2023/24 won by the home team. A further 34% were won by the visiting side, while the remaining 18% ended tied after 90 minutes.
What role does historical data play in making predictions?
You can use historical head-to-head data and results to make predictions, with data from the previous six matches particularly insightful. Each team’s recent performances in the FA Cup should also be considered, with the most consistent sides (Man City and Man United) offering particular value in outright markets.
How do weather conditions influence League Name predictions?
The first round of the 2024/25 FA Cup will kick off on November 1st, while most rounds and matches are played during the winter and early spring. So, games are often played in cold, wet and occasionally snowy conditions, potentially creating a more even playing field and favouring lower-ranked teams.