The 2024/25 EFL Trophy is the 44th iteration of this competition, which is open to all teams competing in League One and League Two.
16 Premier League academy sides are also competing on an invitational basis, creating a total of 64 competitors this season. But who are the favourites among the best betting sites, and what are our EFL Trophy predictions for the current campaign? Be sure to visit The Real EFL to access the very latest team news!
EFL Trophy Winner Prediction: The Top Contenders to Win in 2024-25
Let’s start with our expert’s EFL Trophy winner predictions. Unsurprisingly, current League One leaders Birmingham City are the outright favourites to win the EFL Trophy, with Wrexham, Stockport and defending champions Peterborough also being heavily backed.
But what odds can you get on these teams to prevail, and what are the tactical insights and datasets that should inform your own EFL Trophy football predictions? Let’s find out!
| Logo | Team | AllBritishSports | MyriadPlay |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Birmingham City | Price of 6/1 with All British Sport | Price of 11/2 with MyriadPlay |
 | Wrexham | Price of 10/1 with All British Sport | Price of 10/1 with MyriadPlay |
 | Stockport County | Price of 10/1 with All British Sport | Price of 10/1 with MyriadPlay |
 | Peterborough | Price of 12/1 with All British Sport | Price of 12/1 with MyriadPlay |
 | Rotherham | Price of 12/1 with All British Sport | Price of 12/1 with MyriadPlay |
 | Blackpool | Price of 14/1 with All British Sport | Price of 14/1 with MyriadPlay |
Tactical Breakdowns
Peterborough defeated Wycombe in a thrilling EFL Trophy final in 2023/24, with the Posh triumphing 2-1 courtesy of a late double by full back Harrison Burrows. Darren Ferguson’s attack-minded side top scored in last season’s tournament iteration too, scoring 18 goals in eight matches at a rate of 2.25 per 90 minutes.
Forward players, Kwame Poku and Joel Randall, led Peterborough’s charge last season, as part of the team’s fluid 4-2-3-1 formation. They excelled across all competitions too, recording 41 goals contributions combined (23 goals and 18 assists) during the campaign.
Ferguson’s side also push their full backs incredibly high to create constant attacking width. Last season, the aforementioned Burrows scored five EFL Trophy goals from left back, while contributing an incredible 12 goals and 17 assists in all competitions. His replacement Jack Sparkes already has three goal involvements for the club in 2024/25.
Tournament favourites Birmingham also adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation, although this is a little more structured and designed to prioritise dominance of the ball. To this end, the Blues have averaged 69.2% possession per 90 this season under the stewardship of Chris Davies, while in striker Alfie May they have the joint-third highest scorer in the competition’s history (11 goals in 21 appearances).
Player Impact Assessment
Interestingly, May recently scored his first EFL Trophy goal in 2024/25, while his fellow Blues forward Jay Stansfield also hit two in the 7-1 thrashing of Fulham U21s. Currently, Wycombe striker Beryly Lubala tops this season’s EFL Trophy scoring charts, with each of his four tournament goals coming during a thrilling 5-3 victory of Brighton U21s.
The Congo forward certainly offers value if you’re making an EFL Trophy prediction about the identity of the competition’s top scorer in 2024/25. Remember, Wycombe also progressed to the final last season and have lost just three times in the current campaign, while scoring 35 goals in all competitions at a rate of 2.05 per game.
Wrexham’s Paul Mullin is another Golden Boot contender, having scored 11 EFL Trophy goals in 21 appearances to become one of the tournament’s all-time top scorers. This haul includes two goals already in 2024/25, while he’s likely to get plenty of playing time in the competition with the Dragons also boasting Ollie Palmer and Jack Marriott in attack.
Bradford City’s Tyler Smith had a huge impact on the 2023/24 EFL Trophy, top scoring with six goals in just five appearances. Overall, he has nine tournament goals in just 11 career appearances, affording him an impressive strike rate of 0.81 goals per game. The Bantams are well placed to qualify for the round of 32 in the current campaign too.
Manager Strategies
It’s interesting to note that Posh manager Darren Ferguson has a 100% win-rate at Wembley, winning on each of his four trips to the home of football. This sequence includes two EFL Trophy final successes (including his triumph in 2023/24), while it highlights his willingness to prioritise the competition and secure silverware.
The Posh are the only team to win multiple EFL Trophy iterations since 2013, which is one of the reasons why they’re among the favourites to triumph again under Ferguson’s stewardship in 2024/25.
Birmingham manager Chris Davies has also fielded strong playing squads during the 2024/25 EFL Trophy so far, while he boasts an incredibly deep and well resourced group of players. In the 7-1 thumping of Fulham’s U21 side, for example, he fielded Alfie May and Willum Þór Willumsson alongside £15 million striker Jay Stansfield.
If your England EFL Trophy prediction is that Bolton will win the competition this season, this may have a great deal to do with the performance of coach Ian Evatt. He led the Trotters to an EFL Trophy win in 2022/23, while his side also reached the quarterfinals last season. Evatt’s decision to switch to a structured 3-4-2-1 shape has foxed many opponents in 2024/25 too, while helping the Trotters to average 53.3% possession per 90 overall.
EFL Trophy Semifinal Predictions: Battle for the Final
The EFL Trophy is split into Northern and Southern sections prior to the semi-final stage, with this format having a direct impact on each team’s chances of reaching the last four. For example, favourites Stockport, Wrexham and Bolton will all compete in the Northern section, with the combined records of these teams in 2024/25 featuring five wins in six matches with 17 goals scored.
Birmingham and Peterborogh are participating in the Southern section of the draw, which arguably offers a slightly easier path to the last four. As we’ve touched on, the Posh also have an exceptional record in the EFL Trophy, reaching the last eight on five of their previous six tournament appearances.
Since 2016/17, selected Premier League academy sides have been invited to participate in the EFL Trophy. This season, a total of 16 youth teams will participate in the competition, including Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham.
However, before making your own football predictions on how these sides may fare in 2024/25, you should note that only one team (Chelsea’s U21s in 2018) have previously made the last four of the EFL Trophy. Brighton (2023/24), Arsenal (2021/22), Leicester City (2019/20) and Man City (2018/19) have each reached the last eight.
Best Sites to Bet on EFL Trophy
Whether you want to bet on tournament outrights or individual EFL Trophy matches, it’s important to identify the market leading sportsbooks. Here’s our take on the top betting sites and the factors that set them apart from their rivals!
Bet442
Bet442 is our pick as the best EFL Trophy betting site. Here, you’ll find some incredibly competitive EFL Trophy outrights, especially when backing favourites such as Peterborough, Stockport and Blackpool.
You can also engage in EFL Trophy match betting at Bet442. This unlocks extended moneyline and totals odds, while the site’s ‘acca’ boost has the potential to increase your returns by up to 77% on combination bets with four or more folds.
As a new Bet442 customer, you’re also eligible to receive a $10 free bet. To qualify, simply deposit £20 or more at odds of 1/1 or greater.
- Offers particularly competitive EFL Trophy outright odds.
- Boost your acca wins by up to 77% on bets with 4+ folds.
- Qualify for a £10 free bet at odds of 4/5.
Myriad Play
Myriad Play also offers highly competitive match and outright odds when wagering on the EFL Trophy. You can also access a diverse range of pre-match and live betting markets here, including multiple totals lines and handicaps.
You can also take full control of your in-play bets at Myriad Play. More specifically, you can access full and partial cashouts and early settlements across all EFL Trophy matches, enabling you to recoup at least some of your stake when markets turn against you.
The site’s free bet comprises a £10 free bet and is contingent on you wagering at least £15 at minimum odds of 1/1. The free bet must be staked at odds of 4/5.
- Access more than 80 pre-game match betting markets on the EFL Trophy.
- Leverage full and partial cashouts to control your bets.
- Qualify for a £10 free bet when you deposit £15 at minimum odds of 1/1.
All British Sports
All British Sports is arguably the best EFL Trophy site from the perspective of live betting. To this end, the sportsbook live streams a large number of football matches, including selected and high profile EFL Trophy encounters.
There’s also a large selection of live match betting markets available across EFL Trophy games. To leverage these successfully, you can also access accurate live scores through the site, helping you to time your wagers as effectively as possible.
While there’s no available welcome bonus at All British Sports, you can access odds boosts across selected matches and markets. The site’s intuitive ‘Bet Builder’ feature also enables you to quickly construct accumulators and combination wagers.
- Live stream selected EFL Trophy games and access live scores.
- Use a ‘Bet Builder’ tool to quickly construct combination wagers.
- Access odds boosts across selected EFL Trophy markets.
How the EFL Trophy Works: A Beginner’s Guide
As we’ve touched on, the 48 clubs from League One and League Two entered the group stage of the EFL Trophy. They were joined by the 16 Premier League academy teams, with the initial round of fixtures getting underway on August 20th.
The group stage will conclude on November 12th, at which stage, a total of 32 teams will qualify for the knockout phase and round of 32.
But what’s the precise tournament format for 2024/25, and how will this impact your own English EFL Trophy prediction?
The Tournament Format
The 64 teams are initially split evenly into 16 groups of four. The draw is organised on a regionalised basis, with eight groups featuring sides from the north and another eight comprising clubs from the south. Each group includes one invited academy team.
All teams will play each other once during the group stage, with three points awarded for a win and one for a draw. Matches that end tied after 90 minutes go to a penalty shootout, the winner of which will earn an additional point. Once all fixtures are completed, the two sides with the highest number of points in each group will progress to the round of 32.
From here, the tournament adopts a straight knockout format. This comprises single leg ties with a home and an away side, with each match settled on the night. So, if the competing teams are level after 90 minutes, they’ll head straight into a penalty shootout to determine a winner.
Until the semi-final stage, EFL Trophy games continue to be drawn on a regionalised basis. The showpiece final will then take place at Wembley, and is scheduled for April 13th in 2024/25. Here’s an at-a-glance summary of the tournament schedule for the season:
| Round | Main Date (2024/25) | Number of Teams / Ties |
|---|---|---|
| Group Stage | 20th August – November 12th 2024 | 64 / 96 |
| Round 2 (Round of 32) | 9th December 2024 | 32 / 16 |
| Round 3 (Round of 16) | 13th January 2025 | 16 / 8 |
| Quarterfinals | 3rd February 2025 | 8 / 4 |
| Semi-finals | 17th February 2025 | 4 / 2 |
| Final | 13th April 2025 | 2 / 1 |
What are the Rules for Invited Sides?
Only one invited academy side has reached the last four of the competition since 2016/17, but this has much to do with the restrictions facing such teams.
For example, the rules for the 2024/25 season dictate that invited sides must have a minimum of six starting players who were aged under 21 on 30th June 2024.
Similarly, they can have no more than two players on their team sheet who are aged over 21 as of this date. The same cap applies to players who have made 40 or more senior appearances for their club.
When engaging in EFL Trophy match betting, you should also note that academy teams will have to play all of their group stage games away from home.
The Key Statistics for Your EFL Trophy Predictions
All of our football experts rely on detailed analysis and insight to inform their EFL Trophy predictions. However, some datasets have more weight and are more universally applicable than others. Here’s our take on the most important statistical insights.
Analysing Home Field Advantage in the EFL Trophy
Home field advantage is prevalent in every team sport and competition, and the EFL Trophy is no exception to this rule. However, it varies from one competition to another, with home teams statistically more likely to win in the EFL Trophy than other domestic tournaments in the UK.
In 2023/24, for example, 55% of EFL Trophy games were won by the home side. A further 30% of matches saw the away team prevail, with 15% ending tied after 90 minutes. The previous season produced a 51% win-rate for the host side, with a further 27% of games won by the visiting team.
In the 2021/22 campaign, the percentage of home wins declined slightly to 48%. However, the tournament’s home field advantage remains noticeably higher on average than the FA Cup and EFL Cup, and it’s important to keep this trend in mind when making your EFL Trophy predictions this season.
Analysing The League Performance of EFL Trophy Winners
Of the previous 10 EFL Trophy winners since 2014/15, eight lifted the trophy while plying their trade in League One. Of these sides, seven prevailed while also finishing in the L1 playoff places, while a further six ultimately claimed a spot in the top four.
However, only three of these EFL Trophy winners earned promotion to the Championship during the same season. Two of these (Bristol City in 2014/15 and Rotherham in 2021/22) did so automatically, whereas 2016 winners Barnsley were promoted via the playoffs after finishing sixth in the league.
Lincoln City (2017/18) and Salford (2019/20) are the only League Two sides to lift the EFL Trophy during the last 10 years. Interestingly, neither was able to earn promotion in the same season. The Imps finished seventh in L2 and just outside the playoff places, while Salford placed 11th despite their impressive cup exploits.
Ultimately, League One sides are statistically far more likely to win the EFL Trophy. Winners also tend to perform well in the league, highlighting one of the reasons why sides like Birmingham and Wrexham are among the favourites in 2024/25.
Goals-per-game and Scoring Performances
We’ve already determined that home field advantage is particularly strong in EFL Trophy encounters. The rate of goals scored per game is also noticeably high during the competition, especially when compared to both the FA and EFL Cups.
In 2024/25 so far, EFL Trophy games have produced an average of 3.48 goals per game. Conversely, the FA Cup fixtures completed this season have yielded 3.13 goals per 90 minutes on average, while the corresponding number for the ELF Cup is 3.17.
The rate of goals-per-game has been significantly higher than three for each of the last five EFL Trophy campaigns. In 2023/24, all 127 EFL Trophy matches produced 3.25 goals per 90, with home teams scoring at a rate of 1.90 per game. Interestingly, home sides have scored at the exact same rate in 2024/25 too.
In fact, the higher goals-per-game average this season is the result of away teams being more prolific. In fact, sides on the road have scored at a rate of 1.58 goals per 90 in the 2024/25 EFL Trophy, compared to just 1.35 goals in the previous year. This has coincided with away teams enjoying more success away from home this season.
Making Informed EFL Trophy Predictions: Our Expert Tips
Once you’ve collated and analysed these datasets, you can start to build your EFL Trophy bet slips. But how can you go about constructing winning bets that make the most of your bankroll? Here are some expert tips to keep in mind.
- Prioritise Betting Over the 2.5 Goals Line: The data highlights the EFL Trophy as a particularly high scoring tournament, so betting over the 2.5 goals line is often recommended here. Much will depend on your analysis of each individual game and its competing teams, of course, but 72% of all matches in 2024/25 have produced over 2.5 goals. Interestingly, 42% have yielded in excess of 3.5 goals, so this is a statistically likely outcome in the competition.
- Consider Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Betting: Of the 69 EFL Trophy matches contested so far, 48 have seen both competing teams find the back of the net (69.56%). Away teams are also averaging 11.88 shots per 90 during this season’s competition, compared to 15.57% for the hosts. With away teams also scoring and winning more on the road, there may be value in backing BTTS more often than not when engaging in match betting.
- Back More Than One Outright Winner: If you’re going to make EFL Trophy final predictions and pick the outright winner, we’d recommend selecting two or more teams. This immediately increases your chances of winning, as distributing your stake between Birmingham (6/1), Wrexham (10/1) and Peterborough (10/1) creates a combined implied probability value of 32.06%. By comparing the odds and tailoring each individual stake, you can also guarantee at least a nominal return so long as one of your picks prevails.
EFL Trophy Prediction Guide
Of course, there are other factors that will influence your EFL Trophy predictions and outright bets. These include the impact and functionality of odds and your ability to identify value betting opportunities. You’ll also need to engage in disciplined bankroll and risk management when betting online.
Understanding EFL Trophy odds
When you compare EFL Trophy odds, you’re effectively searching for the best market prices. However, it’s important to understand the information that can be accessed by comparing odds, including how much you stand to win in relation to your stake.
When using decimal odds, you’ll see a single number to two decimal places. This tells you how much you can win for every £1 staked (inclusive of your stake). For example, if you successfully back Birmingham to win outright at odds of 6/1, a £100 stake will deliver a total return of £720 (including your original unit bet).
You can also calculate the implied probability of a particular outcome occurring, using this basic formula – (1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability. So, let’s say that you pick Barnsley to defeat Doncaster in Northern Group F, at a price of 7/4. Here, the formula would read ‘(1/ 2.75) * 100 = 36.36%’, revealing that the Tykes have a 36.36% chance of triumphing.
This insight helps you to set an optimal and balanced stake amount that minimises your exposure to risk.
Value Betting Opportunities
When it comes to value betting, the goal is to identify EFL Trophy betting lines where the probability of a particular outcome occurring are higher than the odds imply. This requires you to conduct detailed team form and scoring analysis, while there’s also an equation that helps you to quantify potential value bets.
Value = (Implied Probability * Odds) – 1
For example, in the previous group stage match between Bristol Rovers and Exeter, ‘The Grecians’ were 13/8 underdogs to prevail. These odds implied a 42.37% probability of an away win. However, Exeter boasted a 100% record in the tournament prior to the game, while the hosts had to win. Rovers have also lost seven times in League One so far this season, so your analysis may have relieved that Exeter had a 55% chance of success.
In this instance, the above equation would read as follows – Value = (0.55 * 2.63) – 1, revealing a sum of 0.4465. This would be indicative of a value bet, as would any calculation that results in a sum that’s higher than zero. Exeter subsequently won this match 3-2 to qualify for the round of 32, so this would have been a solid and well-informed bet.
Risk Management Strategies
Of course, identifying value bets can help you to minimise risk when engaging in match betting. However, setting optimal stake amounts that strike the balance between risk and reward is also key, while you should have a fixed bankroll that covers a predetermined period of time.
Fortunately, there are several risk management strategies that you can deploy. One is to ensure that your bankroll never exceeds an amount that you can comfortably afford to lose. You should also consider setting personalised deposit limits at your chosen sportsbook, as they can be tailored to suit your betting frequency.
Case Study: Shock EFL Trophy Outcomes and Notable Events
The EFL Trophy is one of the most competitive domestic tournaments in the UK, with most participating teams relatively evenly matched. While shock results and winners are relatively rare, however, the tournament has thrown up some genuine surprises and notable events since its inception in 1981/82! These include:
Luton’s Triumph in 2008/09
Luton’s rise from National League to the English top flight in barely a decade represented a remarkable achievement, but the Hatters were upsetting the odds even before this epic journey began.
In 2008/09, for example, they endured a miserable League Two campaign, finishing bottom of the table after having 30 points docked for various financial misdemeanours. Despite being relegated to the National League, however, they went unbeaten in that season’s EFL Trophy, defeating L1 clubs Walsall, Colchester and Brighton on their way to the final.
At Wembley, they were heavy underdogs against League One team Scunthorpe, who ultimately won the playoffs and earned promotion to the Championship during the same season.
However, the Hatters recovered from a goal down to win 3-2 in extra-time, thanks to a 95th minute goal from substitute Claude Gnakpa.
Big Winners and Humbled Premier League Stars
We’ve already touched on the EFL Trophy’s high scoring nature, with the tournament having produced some large margins of victory down the years.
Just recently, 2025 tournament favourites Birmingham thrashed Fulham’s U21 side 7-1 at St Andrews, while League 2 outfit Crewe beat Liverpool’s academy team 5-1 back in August.
Many of the competition’s biggest historic wins certainly involve heavy defeats for Premier League academy sides. Back on October 9th, 2018, League Two side Cheltenham thrashed Arsenal’s U21 team 6-2 at Whaddon Road, despite the Gunners lineup featuring future stars like Bukayo Saka and Tyreece John-Jules.
During that same season, Yeovil thumped West Ham’s academy outfit 4-0 at Huish Park. The Hammers side that day featured future first teamer Ben Johnson and the talented Moses Makasi, while the Glovers finished bottom of L2 that season and were relegated to the National League.
Introducing the Stars of the Future
Although only one Premier League academy team has reached the last four of the EFL Trophy since their introduction in 2016, we can see that the tournament has become a breeding ground for the stars of the future.
In addition to Saka and Johnson, current EPL stars like Alejandro Garnacho and Kobbie Mainoo first cut their teeth in the EFL Trophy. The 19-year-old Garnacho now has 12 Premier League goals to his name for Manchester United, while teammate Kobbie Mainoo has won the FA Cup and starred in England’s run to the Euro 2024 final.
The Chelsea academy team that reached the semi-finals in 2018 also featured some highly talented youngsters who have since enjoyed successful top flight careers. Take Callum Hudson-Odoi, for example, who top scored with four EFL Trophy goals that season and now plies his trade for Nottingham Forest.
Current Galatasaray striker and Belgian international, Michy Batshuayi, also played in the EFL Trophy during the campaign, as did current Blues’ club captain Reece James.
FAQ EFL Trophy Predictions
How accurate are EFL Trophy predictions typically?
Our experts consider a huge range of factors when creating their EFL Trophy predictions. This is done to ensure that each prediction is as well-informed and accurate as possible. However, it’s important to remember that there’s no such thing as a surefire EFL Trophy prediction, due to the number of variables that can impact the results.
What factors are most important when making EFL Trophy predictions?
Team form is a key consideration when making match predictions and picking outright winners. You should also factor home field advantage into your considerations, as this is notably high in the EFL Trophy when compared to other domestic competitions in England. The H2H record between competing teams should also inform match betting picks.
How do home and away performances impact predictions?
Home teams have won 43% of the time in this season’s EFL Trophy, but this percentage was as high as 55% in 2023/24. It also touched 51% during the previous campaign, so home sides have a clear competitive advantage in this competition. This should inform your predictions and match betting picks!
Can I use these predictions for EFL Trophy betting purposes?
Yes, you can! Our expert predictions can be used to help inform your own betting picks, across both match and outright markets. However, we’d also urge you to carry out your own market analysis while establishing viable betting and risk management strategies.
How do injuries affect EFL Trophy predictions?
As we can see, League One sides have a competitive edge in the EFL Trophy. However, injuries to key players can weaken even the best L1 sides, as can suspensions and the decision to rotate their best performers. This can impact odds and create opportunities for value betting.