Ipswich Town suffered a blip at the weekend by losing 1-0 to Norwich City in the East Anglian Derby, a result which has hampered their title chances, as per the latest projections.
Kieran McKenna’s side travelled to Carrow Road in the early kick-off on Saturday on an 11-match unbeaten run, having soared to the top of the table in the meantime. This streak included nine victories and one draw, which came away at fifth-place West Bromwich Albion in the second week of February.
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Nonetheless, a sumptuous free-kick from Marcelino Nunez outside the penalty area sealed all three points for the Canaries while the Tractor Boys’ winless run in the derby against their arch-rivals has now extended to 15 years.
NORWICH MAKE THE BREAKTHROUGH! 😱 pic.twitter.com/PQCfVosQ15
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) April 6, 2024
In the meantime, Ipswich Town were fortunate that Leeds United also suffered their first league defeat of 2024 at Coventry City, meaning the Whites currently sit third in the second tier. Additionally, Leicester City bested Birmingham City late on at the King Power Stadium on Saturday afternoon as the Foxes reclaimed their place at the top of the table.
Following the crushing derby defeat, Town’s hopes of making an unprecedented push for automatic promotion took a large hit. Prior to last weekend, the Tractor Boys boasted a 54.9% chance of finishing inside the top two, as per Opta’s latest projections, a figure which has now fallen to 48.3%, down 6.6% in just three days.
𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: 8 April Update 📈
There were some big results at both the top and the bottom of the Championship this weekend, but how have they changed the Opta Supercomputer projections for 2023-24?
It's time to find out…
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) April 8, 2024
Meanwhile, Opta’s database has calculated that Leeds have a 60.9% chance of being promoted through the automatics, while Leicester’s hopes stand at a likely 90.5% which is up 15.2% after Saturday’s win against Birmingham.
Writer’s View
Opta’s metrics take into account the quality of opponents as well as form, not just how good a team is. Ipswich Town have some really tough fixtures coming up, firstly against a Watford team that are unbeaten in four games, followed by matches versus Middlesbrough, Hull City and Coventry, all of whom are fighting for promotion.
Nevertheless, promotion is still very much in their hands. While it will be difficult, winning their final five games of the campaign will confirm promotion back to the Premier League for the first time in over two decades and the players will certainly take motivation from this.
