As the League One season nears the sprint to the finish line, which players can be relied upon to drag their team over the line? Which players are not performing as they could? Below are 5 players who head the charts from having scored more goals than their expected goals (xG) would suggest. xG is a useful tool when attempting to find out how reliable a player is in front of goal and can tell you whether a player is under or over performing. All statistics have been taken from FotMob.
Aaron Collins – Goals: 15 – xG: 8.1 (+6.9)
Bristol Rovers’ versatile front man has netted 15 times this season, almost 7 goals more than his xG would suggest, and has laid on a further 11 goals for his teammates in his 37 appearances. He has also shown an ability to score with both feet, scoring 8 times with his left foot and 6 with his right.
Collins is having a great season personally and will surely be attracting suitors come the summer.
Jonson Clarke-Harris – Goals: 22 – xG: 15.5 (+6.5)
Peterborough United’s Clarke-Harris has 22 goals in 37 games this season and averages a goal every 145 minutes. He is in a side that do score a lot of goals, but he is performing well in front of goal, being almost 7 goals ahead of there he would be based on the stats. He is dangerous in the box, with 21 of his 22 coming from 18 yards or closer.
There is no real surprise that Clarke-Harris is topping the goalscoring charts in League One and he will be hoping to continue his form as Peterborough make a late dash for the play-offs.
Colby Bishop – Goals: 18 – xG: 12.3 (+5.7)
The former Accrington Stanley man has notched almost 6 goals more than he has been predicted and has an impressive tally of 18 from 37 league games.
The 26 year old has netted all 18 from inside the penalty area and gets his name on the scoresheet every 174 minutes.
Conor Chaplin – Goals: 16 – xG: 11.1 (+4.9)
The Ipswich Town midfielder has scored an impressive 16 times this season, averaging a goal every 160 minutes. The Tractor Boys currently sit 5 points off top spot with a game in hand on Plymouth Argyle and this has been aided by Chaplin scoring almost 5 goals more than expected.
Jevani Brown – Goals: 12- xG: 7.1 (+4.9)
Exeter City’s Jamaican forward has managed 12 goals and 9 assists this season, with his goals coming at 179 minute intervals. The Grecians are relatively comfortable in mid table and Brown being almost 5 goals ahead of his xG is a large factor in that.
These are the 5 players with the highest difference between their actual goals and xG in League One, but special mentions must also go to Bolton Wanderers’ Victor Adeboyeji (+4.7), Plymouth Argyle’s Morgan Whittaker (+4.1) and Derby County’s David McGoldrick (+4).
To balance out those who are overachieving in front of goal, we need to have a look at those individuals who have not made the most of the opportunities that have come their way.
Jayden Stockley Goals: 3 – xG: 6.8 (-3.8)
The Fleetwood Town striker had been prolific in League 2 with Exeter before getting a move to the Championship with Preston North End, a move that didn’t really work out how the 29-year-old would have hoped. He started this season at Charlton Athletic before a winter transfer window switch to Fleetwood. he has only found the net once for the Cod Army and he currently has almost 4 goals less than the opportunities he has had should have brought him.
Matt Taylor Goals: 4 – xG: 6.2 (-2.2)
Port Vale’s 32-year-old striker has found goals hard to come by this season, averaging one of his 4 every 496 minutes across his 29 appearances. Taylor started the season at Oxford United before a January switch to Vale Park, where he has only found the net once since.
Sam Smith Goals: 6 – xG 8 (-2)
Smith is in a Cambridge United side that currently find themselves 6 points adrift of safety at the bottom of the league. Whether the two extra goals the striker’s chances should have seen him score would have made much of a difference we will never know but he will be hoping to at least find some personal form as the season draws to a close.
These three players are those with the greatest discrepancy between their actual goals and xG, but also a mention to Sheffield Wednesday’s Lee Gregory (-1.8) and Peterborough’s Ephron Mason-Clark (-1.1).
Not part of these groups but interesting nonetheless is the Bristol Rovers trio of Scott Sinclair, Ryan Loft and Anthony Evans who are all 0.0 for their goals to xG. Sinclair has 5 goals and an xG of 5 while Loft and Evans are on 4 goals and an xG of 4
