As the League Two season nears the sprint to the finish line, which players can be relied upon to drag their team over the line? Which players are not performing as they could? Below are 5 players who head the charts from having scored more goals than their expected goals (xG) would suggest. xG is a useful tool for determining how reliable a player is in front of goal and can tell you whether a player is under or overperforming. All statistics have been taken from FotMob.
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Andy Cook – Goals: 22 – xG: 12.5 (+9.5)
The Bradford City frontman is having a wonderful season with 22 goals from his 29 starts and is averaging a goal every 116 minutes. The Bantams currently occupy 5th place in League Two and will be hoping Cook can continue his fine form to consolidate their play-off spot.
Cook is nearing the end of his contract with Bradford and his 27 goal involvements this season surely won’t have gone unnoticed.
Sam Hoskins – Goals: 19 – xG 11.7 (+7.3)
Northampton Town currently sit level on points with Carlisle United who occupy the final automatic promotion spot in League Two and this is in no small part due to the fine form of their attacking midfielder who has scored his 19 goals at an average of one every 147 minutes.
The 30-year-old former Yeovil Town man has amassed over 300 appearances for the Cobblers and will be hoping to celebrate a promotion come May.
Kristian Dennis – Goals: 17 – xG: 10.3 (+6.7)
With Carlisle United battling it out for automatic promotion, the goal of Dennis have been vital this season. He finds the net every 138 minutes and will be hoping to continue his form in the run in.
The former Notts County man has found his form again this season, scoring 17 of his 20 Carlisle goals in 2022-23.
Josh Gordon – Goals: 11 – xG: 5.1 (+5.9)
The 28-year-old Barrow man has returned an impressive 11 goals in 22 starts this season, all from an xG of just 5.1. The former Walsall man has helped The Bluebirds to 10th place in League Two.
Billy Waters departed Barrow for Wrexham but Gordon will hope he can get back on the goalscoring trail to help fill that void.
Paul Smyth – Goals: 9 – xG: 4.6 (+4.4)
The attacker’s form has helped Leyton Orient to the top of League Two and a 7 point gap from 4th place. His 9 goals mean he is performing at over 4 goals better than the statistics suggest he should be and he will be looking to continue his best goalscoring season and get Orient into the 3rd tier.
There aren’t a lot of negative xGs of note among the top scorers in the division so we have to drop a little further down the scoring charts until we start to see some noticeable gaps.
Elliott Nevitt – Goals: 4 – xG 7.2 (-3.2)
Crewe Alexandra striker Elliott Nevitt kicks us off in the negative xG countdown with only 4 goals to his name this season when his opportunities could have seen him with 7. The 26-year-old started the season at Tranmere Rovers and he hasn’t scored for Crewe since his January move, meaning his season minutes per goal stands at over 670.
Donovan Wilson – Goals: 2 – xG: 5.1 (-3.1)
Sutton United’s 26-year-old striker has only found the back of the net twice this season and is over 3 goals behind where he could be. At nearly 1000 minutes of football per goal, he spends far longer on the pitch without scoring than anyone else on this list and will look to end the season adding a few more goals to his name.
Aaron Drinan – Goals: 2 – xG: 4.1 (-2.1)
The Leyton Orient attacker has not had the best of season’s in front of goal, managing to find the net only twice in his 25 appearances although only 13 of these have been from the start. He is not a player who has been a prolific goal scorer throughout his career but will be hoping to have an impact as Orient close in on promotion.
