We’ve all heard of xG, or expected goals.
It’s a great method of arguing that your team played well, even if they got beat. if your xG is high, at least you got into good positions on the field. If your xG is low, but you scored more goals, then you were clinical. Like any good football stat, it can be used to defend or attack a team.
It’s also not technically a stat; it’s an opinion. A stat is based on something intangible; one shot is a shot, and there’s no grey area. With xG, there’s a lot open to interpretation, such as the player, the keeper, even the game state. If a team is 4-0 up, are they more likely to make a tap in count than 0-0 in the final minute? xG doesn’t account for that.
However, in general terms, one can reflect on xG and make certain assumptions from it. A team with low xG week to week might be scoring goals, but once they stop hitting 30-yard screamers, they’ve no bread-and-butter chances to fall back on. Likewise, a team with loads of xG who are wasteful in front of goal will, eventually, start scoring regularly.
With that in mind, we’ve compared the xG from the opening two matches to the actual goals scored, to see which clubs are doing well, and which might have something to work on.
Burnley
Burnley have had a superb start to the season, smashing nine goals in just two matches. They hit Luton for four, then put five past hapless Cardiff, but it’s not going to always be like that. Why? Because their xG has been just 2.16 for those two matches, lower than (in no particular order) Hull, QPR, Portsmouth, Derby, Sheff Utd, Sunderland, Bristol City, Blackburn,. Luton, Sheff Weds, Coventry, Millwall, Watford, Swansea, Norwich, Leeds and Middlesbrough.
While Scott Parker’s side are looking good, they’ve perhaps had a bit of fortune in front of goal.
Middlesbrough
Boro have beaten Swansea 1-0 and lost 1-0 to Derby, but their xG is a whopping 4.39, the best in the Championship. If xG were used to determine winners, they would have beaten Derby 2-1 and beaten Swansea by the same score. That’s a solid start, and while one-off games can see you outperform your opponent and lose, if they keep that up, they’ll be a serious promotion contender this season.
Huddersfield Town
Huddersfield have made a good start to life in League One, but their goals total (four) is higher than. their xG (1.90). They beat Stevenage 2-1 this weekend, but scored two from an xG of 1.2, on the back of scoring two from an xG of 0.7 on the opening weekend.
They’ve been clincial, but that isn’t sustainable, and the Terriers will need to create more chances if they’re to sustain their promotion push.
Cambridge United
Garry Monk’s side could be described as hapless – they’ve lost Crawley (1-0) and Stockport (2-0) so far this season. It feels like it could be a long campaign for them, but there’s a ray of hope – they should have scored at least three goals.
In fact, only two teams have had more xG in the division – Mansfield Town and Peterborough, which suggests Cambridge are perhaps a striker away from being a decent midtable side. It remains to be seen if they can keep it up.
Colchester United
In an odd twist, the team outperforming their xG beat the team underperforming theirs this weekend. Colchester, under Danny Cowley, have netted four goals so far, but created just 1.22 xG. Cowley once claimed at Lincoln he’d rather be creating chances and missing than not creating at all, and right now, his side aren’t creating a lot, but are clinical.
That could be seen as having room to grow, especially under a manager with the success Cowley has enjoyed in League Two in the past.
MK Dons
Everyone’s pre-season favourites have struggled so far, losing to Bradford and Colchester. However, their xG in both games was higher than their opponents, and a win in both would have probably been fair.
That means they’re on the right track, and even after two defeats, there’s evidence that MK Dons will still climb the table, once things begin to click, as they’re creating the right amount of chances.
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