Finding someone who can regularly score goals is worth its weight in gold. Finding someone who can find the back of the net from nothing is yet more precious.
Like it or loathe it, xG provides useful data on those over and underperforming in front of goal. The League Two season is set for an exciting finish and here we look at those players who have helped their teams by performing better than their statistics.
All xG statistics are provided by FotMob and a player must have at least 10 league goals.
Will Evans – 20 goals from 12.7xG (+7.3 difference)
Welshman Evans has had the season of his career so far, netting 20 times in 38 matches to give his Newport County side hope of a playoff berth.
After joining the Exiles from Bala Town at the start of last season, it was a slow start for the forward as he only managed four League Two goals last term.
He has been in blistering form this season, with 24 goals in all competitions. Included in this tally was the equalising goal in a losing effort against Premier League giants Manchester United in the FA Cup fourth round.
County will be hoping Evans can recapture the form he showed throughout January and February when he scored six in seven as they look to squeeze into the top seven come the end of April.
Dan Kemp – 17 goals from 11.2xG (+5.8 difference)
The majority of Kemp’s goals came during his loan spell with Swindon Town, with the midfielder scoring 14 times in 25 League Two appearances.
Since his return to parent club MK Dons, goals have proved a little harder to come by with just three in 15 since January.
The former Leyton Orient man could prove vital if the MK Dons can get him firing as they hunt down a top-three finish.
Matt Smith – 23 goals from 17.3xG (+5.7 difference)
Experienced Salford City striker Matt Smith is another enjoying the best season of his career and already has 23 league goals to his name.
Smith, who includes Leeds United and Millwall as former clubs, has been with the Ammies since the 2021-22 season but has gone beyond his combined tally of the previous seasons during this campaign.
The ex-Oldham Athletic man provides a physical threat, standing at almost two metres tall, and is dangerous with his head and feet. His prowess in front of goal has certainly been on display this season, scoring almost six times above the predicted return.
Jake Young – 16 goals from 10.6xG (+5.4 difference)
A second player to have spent the first half of the season with Swindon, Young notched an impressive 16 goals from 25 League Two outings during his time at the County Ground.
His form led to a recall to parent club Bradford City who were hopeful he would continue his form in front of goal back at Valley Parade. Unfortunately for Young and the Bantams, he has failed to get going since his January return.
Swindon fans must be left ruing a missed opportunity of a higher finish, after having two players who scored a combined 30 league goals before February.
Davis Keillor-Dunn – 19 goals from 13.9xG (+5.1 difference)
Attack-minded midfield man Keillor-Dunn joined Mansfield Town from Burton Albion during the 2022-23 season and is yet another on this list enjoying their finest goal-scoring season.
His impressive return of 19 goals, over five more than the statistics suggest he should have, has played a pivotal role in Nigel Clough’s men taking control of their own destiny at the top of League Two.
At 26 years of age, Keillor-Dunn is heading into his prime years and Stags’ fans will be desperate for those years to be spent at Field Mill.
The League One statistics can be found here.
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