Kevin Maher believes it’s time to end the debate on three up, three down – and he’s absolutely right.
Following Southend United’s heart-breaking 3-2 extra-time defeat to Oldham Athletic in the National League play-off final, Maher was clear: the current system should change. However, while he’s right it is time for the debate to end, it should probably be the other way – because history doesn’t support the argument.
History Doesn’t Support the Argument
The notion that three teams should be promoted from the National League each season is a popular one among ambitious non-league fans, but it simply doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. The most common argument — “every other league does it” — is misleading. In fact, the majority of leagues in the English football pyramid promote just two teams. Below the National League, promotion structures remain heavily restricted, usually offering one automatic promotion and one play-off winner.
Even in the notable 2022/23 National League season where both Wrexham and Notts County passed the 100-point mark, the situation was an outlier. Claims that Wrexham’s 111 points were a record, or that two 100-point sides in the same division was unprecedented, are inaccurate. The 2017/18 Southern League had Hereford claim 113 points and saw four more clubs secure at least 97 points — a stronger achievement without triggering structural change. One exceptional season does not necessitate a systemic overhaul.
Promoted Teams Rarely Excel
Another favourite talking point is that promoted teams always “do well” in League Two. But that depends on how “well” is defined. While it’s true that few teams are immediately relegated, survival alone is a low bar. Most clubs hover around the lower half of the table in their first season. Over the last two decades, just nine promoted teams have reached League One swiftly, and many more — including Hartlepool, Barnet, and Macclesfield — have struggled or even collapsed financially within a few seasons.
Only money-backed outfits like Wrexham, Crawley Town or Salford City have bucked that trend, and even then, not consistently. The majority of newly promoted clubs have failed to trouble the upper reaches of the EFL, a trend which undermines the idea that National League champions and play-off winners are consistently EFL-ready.
This season, not one of the promoted clubs have tasted National League football since 2016 (Wimbledon) and the side before that, Doncaster, were last there in 2003.
Relegated Clubs Often Struggle to Recover
There’s a harsh reality awaiting clubs who drop into the National League — it’s hard to return. Between 2003 and now, only a handful have bounced back at the first attempt. Lincoln City, who came close to dropping into the National League North in 2013, were a whisker away from joining the list of clubs the system chewed up and spat out.
Several former EFL clubs — including Chester City, Rushden & Diamonds, and Halifax Town — were relegated into the National League and ceased to exist shortly after. Even those that survived, like Torquay or York City, have spent more time yo-yoing between the sixth and fifth tiers than seriously challenging for EFL returns.
Financial Stability Is Still a Concern
Although coverage and funding for the National League have improved in recent years, the risks of relegation remain significant. Clubs with long histories and loyal fanbases are still vulnerable. Maher’s Southend United are one of many examples — a club with EFL pedigree, only now finding stability after years of chaos.
To ask League Two clubs to vote for a system that increases their risk of financial ruin is naïve. The romantic idea of a fairer system forgets the basic principle of self-preservation. The EFL is a members’ club, and its members — understandably — won’t voluntarily increase their odds of relegation unless the upside is clear and sustained. Right now, it isn’t.
Writer’s View
The push for three up, three down may one day succeed, and Kevin Maher ought to be aware that his team’s haul of 68 points wouldn’t have seen them in the play-offs in any of the leagues above. His arguments for it are built on emotion, not evidence. Aside from a couple of unique seasons and the occasional fairy tale rise, the majority of promoted sides have simply blended into the background. Meanwhile, relegated clubs often face years of struggle or complete collapse.
Until the National League consistently produces sides that do more than just survive in the EFL — and until those relegated from League Two aren’t met with existential crises — there’s no compelling case for change. The current structure may seem harsh, but it’s rooted in practicality, not prejudice. And in football, that matters more than dreams of parity.
