Carlisle United have been tipped to avoid relegation by expert data analysts Opta, despite currently sitting bottom of League Two.
It’s been a miserable 18 months for the Cumbrians. The finished rock bottom of League One last season, ending the campaign 16 points adrift of safety.
Suffering a hangover, this season started in similar fashion, losing five of their first six fixtures. The tough decision to part company with Paul Simpson was taken in the midst of this form, with MK Dons manager Mike Williamson making the shock decision to swap promotion contention for a relegation battle.
The change in management failed to spark an immediate revival. However, form did slightly begin to pick up last month and Saturday’s 2-0 defeat against Chesterfield ended a four-game unbeaten run.
Season-Defining Period
Having won just three times all season, Carlisle now face a potentially season-defining period over the festive season. That kicks off against title challengers Port Vale this weekend, but they then welcome fellow relegation candidates Morecambe and Accrington Stanley to Brunton Park.
Results in both fixtures could change the Blues’ trajectory for the campaign and aid them in their pursuit to avoid back-to-back relegations. Defeat in either fixture though could prove disastrous.
Carlisle Tipped To Survive
Carlisle have arguably been in the better form of those in and around the drop zone. Both Morecambe and Swindon have lost three of their last five whilst the basement team have failed to pick up any points just once.
As such, Opta have calculated that Williamson’s side will avoid relegation by the skin of their teeth. In their latest prediction table, it is said that they have a 39.9% chance of dropping into the National League. Swindon and Morecambe are given a 41.38% and 61.28% chance respectively.
Writer’s View
There is obviously a lot of football still to be played this season, but these calculations clearly take into account recent form and the fact that Carlisle have played a game less than the two teams above them. However, football isn’t decided on predictions and the Cumbrians need to take full advantage of their next two huge home games. The Port Vale game on Saturday can be seen as somewhat of a free hit, but they need to pick up six points against Morecambe and Accrington Stanley. Failing to do so could see them start to be cut adrift.
Head of Writing
