Likelier Than Ipswich or Southampton? — Supercomputer Predicts Leeds United Promotion Chances

Leeds United are unbeaten in 2024 and, despite a disappointing draw in the West Yorkshire, still have a higher chance of winning the title than Ipswich Town and Southampton, as per Opta’s latest calculations.

The Whites were on an incredible nine-game winning run in the Championship prior to Saturday’s clash at the John Smith’s Stadium but the result meant that Daniel Farke’s men missed the opportunity to pile further pressure on league leaders Leicester City who are on a three-match losing streak.

The Yorkshire outfit will be even more disappointed given the Terriers were down to ten men after Jonathan Hogg was given his marching orders before half-time, with the hosts leading the game 1-0. Patrick Bamford equalised for the visitors with just over twenty minutes remaining, but his seventh goal of the campaign was only enough to salvage merely a point.

Meanwhile, Ipswich Town managed to leap above Leeds United to re-stake their claim for the second-place berth. The Tractor Boys put Plymouth Argyle to the sword at Home Park to extend their winning streak to five matches, putting Kieran McKenna’s men within five points of Leicester at the top.

Furthermore, Southampton scraped past a ten-man Birmingham City in the sixth-minute of stoppage time to clinch a late victory, keeping the Saints alive in the race for the automatic promotion spots after a recent blip in form.

Now, with 11 games remaining of the regular season, Opta Analyst’s Supercomputer has predicted that Leeds United still have a better chance of achieving a top-two finish and of possibly even lifting the title in May than Ipswich and Southampton. Additionally, the data has also predicted that Leeds’ chances of finishing in the automatic promotion places has fallen from 71.6% to 56.6% after the weekend’s results.

Writer’s View

Leeds United are still the favourites to finish behind Leicester from a logistical standpoint because Farke easily has the strongest side, apart from the Foxes, in the race for promotion back to the Premier League.

Furthermore, the Whites also have a favourable run of fixtures compared to Ipswich and Southampton, where the latter still has to play every single side in the top three, including an unwelcoming trip to Elland Road on the final day of the campaign. Opta’s latest numbers certainly make sense from this point of view.


About Adam Scully 764 Articles
Deputy Head of Writing

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