It’s that time of the season again and Sheffield Wednesday, Barnsley, Bolton Wanderers and Peterborough United will contest in the League One play-offs, with supercomputer FiveThirtyEight predicting that there will be drama before all is said and done at Wembley Stadium later this month.
Now that the normal season is in the history books, the four remaining teams will contest for the final spot in the Championship as they hope to join Plymouth Argyle and Ipswich Town in England’s second tier. The form book will no doubt be thrown out of the window once the semi finals kick off later this week, with Peterborough United hosting third placed Sheffield Wednesday on Friday night in the first leg before Bolton and Barnsley fight it out at the University of Bolton Stadium on Saturday.
Peterborough snuck into the play-offs on the final day with a win against Barnsley at Oakwell, whilst Derby County suffered heartbreak with defeat against Sheffield Wednesday.
Who Has The Momentum Leading Into The Play-offs?
The Owls are considered the favourites of many to earn promotion after sitting in the automatic promotion places for much of the campaign, before a run of one win in eight games between March and April saw Ipswich take the upper hand.
Wednesday have recovered in recent weeks though and wrapped up the season with four successive wins as they hope to take that momentum to Cambridgeshire on Friday. Posh will also be confident after the drama at Barnsley yesterday.
The Tykes themselves only have one win in their last five, although their play-off spot was assured some time ago and it is likely that they took their foot off the gas with these fixtures in mind.
Over in the North West, Bolton will be quietly optimistic after already secured the EFL Trophy earlier this year with an impressive 4-0 win over champions Plymouth Argyle in the final and they will have their eyes on a second Wembley visit of the season. The Trotters have taken four points off their play-off opponents this season, although the two did meet in the first round of the FA Cup in November, with Barnsley progressing with a 2-1 win.
What Does The Supercomputer Say?
On paper, it appears to be a lottery and anyone who has had half an eye on the Football League play-offs over the years will know that surprises will occur more often than not. However, supercomputer FiveThirtyEight has had a crack of predicting the final outcome using an array of algorithms to play out the most likely scenario.
The data is driven using a SPI rating, which considers each team’s form, injuries and goals scored and conceded in recent weeks.
Based on those details, it concludes that Sheffield Wednesday have a 33% chance of promotion, with Barnsley just behind on 27%. Peterborough are considered rank outsiders and are handed a slim 17% chance of returning to the Championship, whilst Bolton fans will be hoping that their 23% chance increases over the course of the next week.
Predictably, even the supercomputer believes that this will be a tight affair and it is worth noting that Sheffield Wednesday were considered 78% likely to win League One using the same algorithms at the start of March. The Yorkshire side will be hoping for a better outcome than this time last year, when they suffered heartbreak at the semi final stage against eventual winners Sunderland.
Writer’s View
Having witnessed several unsuccessful play-off campaigns at Lincoln City, I know how tough it is to emerge unscathed from these types of fixtures. It’s anyone’s guess as to who will be the eventual winner, although Sheffield Wednesday do have the best form leading into their first leg on Friday.
That will mean nothing here though, but the Owls will be full of confidence and will not want to suffer a second heartbreak of the season after missing out on automatic promotion.
Three of the four teams here are ex-Premier League and Bolton will also be desperate to return to the second tier for the first time since 2019.
