As we head into the final two weeks of the season, thoughts turn to the games that will determine who is the fourth team promoted to League One in the 22/23 campaign. This weekend saw Leyton Orient confirmed as Champions, but with two automatic promotion places still to be decided as well as the final play-off positions, here’s our rundown of the seven teams fighting it out over two automatic spots and four play-offs – who’s going to miss out?
This season the League Two play-offs final takes place at Wembley on Sunday 28th May at 1.30pm. First leg games take place in the evenings on Saturday 13th May (7th v 4th) and Sunday 14th May (6th v 5th), with second leg games on Thursday 18th May (4th v 7th) and Friday 19th May (5th v 6th).
For each of the seven teams still in content for promotion (no-one else is numerically still able to make the cut after Barrow’s loss to Carlisle on Saturday) we look at their remaining games, current league position, recent form, and anything else that we think might affect their final position. Any of the teams from 2nd place down to 8th could finish in the automatic promotion slots this season, so it’s unlikely that anything will be decided until the final day, but we may see predictions emerging after this week’s games.
Northampton Town – Current League Position: 2
Points: 80
Goal difference: +20
Goals scored: 60
Remaining games:
29/4 – Bradford City
8/5 – Tranmere Rovers (a)
Form: LWDWW
Writer’s notes:
Northampton’s four point lead over Stevenage could be all but wiped out if Stevenage win their game in hand against Swindon on Tuesday, but they do come out on top in terms of both goal difference and goals scored compared to Stevenage. Their confidence will have been bolstered by their 3-1 weekend win over Harrogate, and Bradford’s recent form should also give Northampton some optimism. Northampton need two wins to guarantee second place, anything less and their fate will then depend on the results of the the teams below them, especially Stevenage, Stockport, and Carlisle. With one home game and one away game left to play, Northampton’s home and away form would be less of a factor anyway, but they do have the best record away from home, with an average of 2.36 points per game. That said, they do go into their final two games still with injury issues, although Jon Brady’s team’s recent form suggests they’re currently managing without captain Jon Guthrie and are led by Skybet League Two Player of the Season Sam Hoskins who scored his 21st goal of the season on Saturday, as well as the return of Josh Eppiah.
Stevenage – Current League Position: 3
Points: 76
Goal difference: +18
Goals scored: 57
Remaining games:
25/4 – Swindon (a)
29/4 – Grimsby Town
8/5 – Barrow (a)
Form: DDWWL
Writer’s notes:
A win over Swindon on Tuesday night would take Stevenage to within one point of second place, and hoping that Northampton will drop points in one of their final games so they can take advantage. However, with three games remaining, that extra fixture on Tuesday heightens the risk of injuries, suspensions and fixture fatigue at the end of a busy season. After a run of terrible form, Jody Morris’s Swindon have hit their pace and come into the tie with one draw and two wins from their last three, including against Bradford. Another key factor in the final stage of Stevenage’s push for promotion is their away form. With two of their last three games away from home, their away points per goal (PPG) average is 1.24, and they haven’t won away from home since 28th February. If that form continues it could have a massive impact on their final league position.
Stockport County – Current League Position: 4
Points: 75
Goal difference: +25
Goals scored: 61
Remaining games:
29/4 – Leyton Orient (a)
8/5 – Hartlepool United
Form: WWDDW
Writer’s notes:
Stockport County go into their final two games of the season without top scorer striker Kyle Wootton who is out for the rest of the season, and will likely be missing Will Collar for their tie against Leyton Orient on Saturday due to concussion sustained in their 1-0 win over Rochdale at the weekend. In their reverse ties they drew 1-1 with Leyton Orient, and beat Hartlepool 5-0. On 75 points along with Carlisle, Stockport have a slightly better goal difference, but if it goes to goals scored Carlisle have the advantage. With a slow start to the season, Stockport’s turnaround came a little too late for automatic promotion, but if Stevenage drop points it could be within their reach, and they’ll be hoping that League 2 Champions Leyton Orient take their foot off the pedal for their last games of the season.
Carlisle United – Current League Position: 5
Points: 75
Goal difference: +24
Goals scored: 63
Remaining games:
29/4 – Salford City
8/5 – Sutton United (a)
Form: WDDDW
Writer’s notes:
If Carlisle can take points from Salford on Saturday, they’ll go into their final game of the season confident of three points given that Sutton haven’t won since 7th March. On 75 points along with Stockport, two wins would take them to 81 points. Northampton are currently on 80, and Stevenage on 76, and both have poorer goal differences than Carlisle and Stockport. Stevenage do have three games to play though, and that extra game in hand may be crucial to determining how hard Carlisle have to work in the last two games.
Bradford City – Current League Position: 6
Points: 72
Goal difference: +18
Goals scored: 56
Remaining games:
29/4 – Northampton (a)
3/5 – Crewe Alexandra (a)
8/5 – Leyton Orient
Form: DWWLD
Writer’s notes:
Just a week ago, Bradford were being cited as ‘the team to watch’. Wins against Rochdale and Sutton had them eyeing automatic promotion, and then came a loss to Swindon, who at the time hadn’t won in nine games, followed by a draw at home to Gillingham. They go into their last three games on 72 points, and three off Stockport and Carlisle, but that game in hand is no longer the massive threat to the four teams above them that it had been expected to be. As Crewe are the only team in the league to have four games left to play, Bradford won’t meet them until next Tuesday, and they have a week off until they meet second-placed Northampton on Saturday. Can Mark Hughes’s men get their heads together enough to get more than three points from their remaining three games, including the league champions and current second placed team?
Salford City – Current League Position: 7
Points: 72
Goal difference: +18
Goals scored: 69
Remaining games:
29/4 – Carlisle United (a)
8/5 – Gillingham
Form: LWLWW
Writer’s notes:
Salford will be hoping for some less stressful ties against Carlisle and Gillingham than their last-minute nail biter against Walsall at the weekend, which they won 3-2 despite only having 40% of the possession and down to ten men. They go into their final two games of the season without Aston Villa loanee Louie Barry who was sent off against Walsall for violent conduct. With their last two games against Carlisle and Gillingham, Salford have one of the more difficult run-ins. Carlisle are looking to automatic promotion, and Gillingham have had a fantastic few weeks, drawing with Stockport and Bradford, and beating league leaders Leyton Orient, so they definitely shouldn’t be seen as the easy tie, especially as they’re still looking for their elusive away win. Given that the teams sandwiching them are also on 72 points, but both have three games to play versus Salford’s two, Salford are the most likely to drop out of the play-off positions and into eighth place.
Mansfield Town – Current League Position: 8
Points: 72
Goal difference: +17
Goals scored: 68
Remaining games:
25/4 – Leyton Orient
29/4 – Harrogate Town
8/5 – Colchester United (a)
Form: WDDWW
Writer’s notes:
Mansfield are, on paper, the team with the strongest form across the last five games, and their weekend win against Stevenage bolstered their campaign. Like Bradford, they have a game in hand over Salford, and even an additional point from that game will help them as at the moment they’re only divided by goal difference. They will be expecting three points from their home tie against Harrogate, but the games with Orient and ColU will be tougher. Colchester are in excellent form at the moment, and Leyton Orient are an unknown entity given that they have already been promoted as champions and so may relax somewhat. After Mansfield’s play-off disappointment last season they will be keen to reverse their fortunes, but will be looking to get as far up the table as they can.
