Three teams remain in trouble at the bottom end of League One, ahead of the final game.
Cheltenham kept the race alive by taking all three points on Tuesday evening, but the Robins still have survival out of their hands. Two teams are also in the fight: Cambridge and Burton.
Two teams will be confirmed in League One this afternoon, but which two? Here we take a look into the permutations for the final day…
19th: Cambridge United (47 Points) (-22)
Opponents: Port Vale (A) (23rd)
Win: A win would relieve all tensions in Staffordshire, as that more than guarantees Cambridge’s League One status.
Draw: The equation is simple for Cambridge: avoid defeat and they are safe.
Loss: The nerves would be jangling if Vale were to take all three points tomorrow. But even then, the Amber Army would still be celebrating if Cheltenham don’t win. Alternatively, as long as Burton don’t pick up three points, then Cambridge will survive. This scenario becomes complex if Cheltenham win, then Cambridge theoretically cannot lose by three goals. If they do, all three are level on 47 points. Cheltenham are safe thanks to their superior goal difference, but Burton and Cambridge begin the day level on goals scored. So even a three-goal loss would be fine if the U’s scored one more goal than Burton, if the Brewers drew. To put it into results in its simplest form- Stevenage 0-1 Cheltenham, Fleetwood 0-0 Burton, Port Vale 4-1 Cambridge. If goals scored do end up being level between both, then Burton survive thanks to their greater head-to-head record between the sides, after defeating Cambridge back in October and the goalless draw at the Abbey earlier this year. Confused?
20th: Burton Albion (46 Points) (-25)
Opponents: Fleetwood Town (A) (22nd)
Win: Safety is assured with three points.
Draw: A point should be enough, providing that Cheltenham don’t pick up all three points. In this case, then a Cambridge loss by three goals is required to keep the Brewers in the third tier. As above, goals scored come into the equation if that is the case, and these sets of results would see Burton safe: Stevenage 0-1 Cheltenham, Fleetwood 0-0 Burton, Port Vale 3-0 Cambridge. In the league standings, Burton and Cambridge would have an identical record, but Albion’s greater head-to-head record would see them survive.
Loss: Defeat means the situation becomes difficult, as the Brewers are the side that Cheltenham are chasing. If they don’t win then Burton are still safe.
21st: Cheltenham Town (44 Points) (-23)
Opponents: Stevenage (A) (9th)
Win: Only three points will do, and even then a favour is required from at least one side in the bottom four. If Burton don’t win, then Cheltenham are safe on goal difference. Should Albion take all three points, then a Cambridge loss coupled with three points for the Robins sees them safe.
Draw: N/A
Loss: N/A
