USA vs Paraguay Prediction, Odds, Lineups & Betting Tips (13/06/2026) – World Cup

The 2026 World Cup reaches Los Angeles as co-hosts the United States open their Group D campaign against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium. This USA vs Paraguay match preview breaks down our prediction, team form, probable lineups and the latest betting markets for UK punters. Kick-off is 2am BST on Saturday 13 June, live on the BBC.

Our Prediction for USA vs Paraguay 13/06/2026

The USA are favourites at home, but this looks far closer than the co-hosts would like. Mauricio Pochettino’s side carry real attacking threat yet have leaked goals worryingly, while Gustavo Alfaro’s Paraguay are built on discipline and a stubborn back line. Our USA vs Paraguay score prediction is a 2-1 home win. The Americans edged this exact scoreline in a November friendly, and their defensive frailties make a Paraguay goal likely even in victory. For the markets, USA to win is the headline call, but the value lies in goals. The hosts have conceded in eight straight games, so both teams to score appeals, and Folarin Balogun is tempting in the anytime scorer market after a prolific end to his club season. Among our wider USA vs Paraguay betting tips, backing the USA on the Draw No Bet line offers insurance against a Paraguay smash-and-grab. Expect an open, nervy opener that the hosts shade thanks to their superior firepower and home crowd. Predicted Scoreline: USA 2–1 Paraguay Recommended Bet: USA to Win (Both Teams to Score for value)

USA Form Analysis

The USA arrive under pressure after a stuttering build-up. Pochettino’s men have lost three of their four games in 2026 and kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 internationals, conceding in each of their last eight. Their final warm-ups summed up the mood: a battling 3-2 win over Senegal was followed by a 1-2 defeat to Germany. Defensively they look open, having shipped 11 goals across four matches this year, but going forward they remain dangerous. That threat is led by Folarin Balogun, who scored 11 goals in his final 14 club games for Monaco, including five in the Champions League. Christian Pulisic provides the creative spark from the left, with Weston McKennie and captain Tyler Adams anchoring midfield. Encouragingly, the USA won four of their final five games in 2025, a run that featured a 5-1 thrashing of Uruguay and a 2-1 victory over Paraguay. Home advantage at a sold-out SoFi Stadium should lift them, but the defensive questions are real. Recent results: USA 1-2 Germany (L), USA 3-2 Senegal (W), USA 2-1 Paraguay (W), USA 5-1 Uruguay (W).

Paraguay Form Analysis

Paraguay return to the World Cup for the first time since 2010, and they arrive as one of the tournament’s hardest teams to beat. Gustavo Alfaro transformed a struggling side, conceding just 10 goals across 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers to finish level on points with Brazil, Uruguay and Colombia. The system is built on containment. Alfaro sets up in a disciplined 4-4-2 that collapses into a narrow 4-5-1 without the ball, frustrating opponents before striking on the counter. Captain Gustavo Gomez and Omar Alderete form a commanding centre-back pairing, shielded by the energetic Andres Cubas and Brighton’s Diego Gomez. The concern is at the other end. La Albirroja have looked blunt in recent friendlies, conceding twice each against Japan, South Korea and the United States, and barely troubling Morocco. Much rests on the creativity of Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso, with Antonio Sanabria leading the line. Their set-piece threat and counter-attacking pace make them dangerous, but they will need to take their chances against a vulnerable USA defence. Recent results: South Korea 2-0 Paraguay (L), Japan 2-2 Paraguay (D), USA 2-1 Paraguay (L).

USA vs Paraguay Betting Odds

The USA vs Paraguay betting odds confirm a tight contest. The hosts are rated around 1.95 to 2.00 to win, with Paraguay a tempting 3.60 to 3.90 and the draw priced near 3.25 to 3.45. Those USA vs Paraguay odds imply roughly a 51% USA win probability, matching the predictive models. The goals markets are where this game gets interesting: with the USA leaking chances and Paraguay carrying a set-piece threat, both teams to score trades around 2.00 to 2.07, while over 2.5 goals sits near 2.15 to 2.25. For value, USA on the Draw No Bet line shortens the risk, while both teams to score looks the standout angle given the hosts’ defensive record. As always, compare prices across bookmakers before placing any bet.

Market
USA to Win	1.95	2.00	1.98	1.98
Draw	3.33	3.25	3.45	3.45
Paraguay to Win	3.60	3.67	3.90	3.90
Over 2.5 Goals	2.15	2.25	2.25	2.25
Both Teams to Score	2.05	2.00	2.07	2.07

Where to Watch USA vs Paraguay

Everything UK viewers need to follow the Group D opener live.

Probable Lineups for USA vs Paraguay

Both managers have settled on their strongest available sides. Here is the likely USA vs Paraguay lineup for the opener, subject to late fitness checks, with Pochettino’s attacking 4-2-3-1 up against Alfaro’s compact 4-4-2.

Last Encounters Between USA and Paraguay

These sides know each other well, and the USA hold the edge. The Americans have won four of their six senior meetings, including a 2-1 friendly victory in November 2025 and a 1-0 win at the 2016 Copa America Centenario through Clint Dempsey. Paraguay’s wins came at the 2007 Copa America (3-1) and a 2011 friendly, but they have not beaten the USA since. Remarkably, the only previous World Cup meeting between the two came at the very first tournament in 1930, when the USA ran out 3-0 winners.

Date	Venue	Competition	Result	Goal Scorers
16/11/2025	United States	International Friendly	USA 2–1 Paraguay	—
27/03/2018	United States	International Friendly	USA 1–0 Paraguay	Wood (pen)
11/06/2016	Philadelphia, USA	Copa América Centenario	USA 1–0 Paraguay	Dempsey
03/07/2007	Venezuela	Copa América	Paraguay 3–1 USA	—

USA vs Paraguay Group D Standings

As the first Group D fixture, this match opens the USA vs Paraguay standings race, with all four teams starting level on zero points. Australia and Turkiye complete the group. Under the expanded 48-team format, the top two qualify automatically alongside the eight best third-placed sides, so a winning start is hugely valuable. Victory would give the USA early control, while Paraguay will view even a point in Los Angeles as a solid platform.

Which Teams Will Qualify from Group D

Group D is among the most balanced at the tournament. The USA, with home advantage in every game, are favourites to top the group, though their defensive issues leave the door ajar. Paraguay’s organisation makes them strong contenders for second or a best-third-placed spot. Turkiye, boasting talents such as Arda Guler and Hakan Calhanoglu, are many people’s dark horses and could push the USA all the way. Australia bring tournament experience and resilience but look the outsiders. Expect a tight fight for the top two, with this opener potentially decisive in shaping who advances from Group D.

USA and Paraguay Players in English Football

Haji Wright – Coventry City (Championship) UK fans may know the USA forward best from the EFL, where he leads the line for Coventry City. A powerful, direct striker, he gives Pochettino a useful change of pace off the bench. Antonee Robinson – Fulham (Premier League) The USA’s flying left-back is a Premier League regular at Fulham and one of the division’s finest attacking full-backs. His overlapping runs are central to the American attack. Diego Gomez – Brighton (Premier League) Paraguay’s midfield engine plays his club football at Brighton. Box-to-box and press-resistant, the young midfielder is the heartbeat of Alfaro’s side.

Recent EFL Connections

Folarin Balogun – Monaco (ex-Middlesbrough) The USA striker sharpened his game in the EFL, spending the 2021-22 season on loan at Middlesbrough in the Championship before his move to France. Brenden Aaronson – Leeds United The USA midfielder spent recent seasons with Leeds, helping them win promotion from the EFL Championship, and remains a handy squad option for Pochettino. Julio Enciso – Strasbourg (ex-Brighton) Paraguay’s creative wildcard built his reputation in the Premier League with Brighton before moving to France, and his long-range shooting can decide tight games.