League One is into its final two months of the campaign, meaning the run-in is well and truly underway.
Some clubs are in a position where they know that they are secure in mid-table and are likely to be in the third tier next season. But for others, they are entering the deciding stretch of the campaign.
Fine margins are necessary to provide that edge on other sides, and how well a side can perform in the latter half of games will be telling in where these sides finish this season. With that in mind, let’s take an in-depth view of the second-half table for League One this season…
Automatic Promotion
This finally looks like the season that Portsmouth will return to the Championship, and they are still on track to win the title in the second half of games. But Pompey’s points tally is eight fewer than the regular table, although this could be evidence that they get the business done in the first 45 minutes.
Taking the second automatic promotion place is Barnsley, who have thrown their hat into the race in recent weeks with a surging run of form. The South Yorkshire side have also capitalised on slip-ups from their rivals above, but in these standings, their points total of 67 is exactly the same. But the Tykes ten draws turn to four, splitting the difference of six equally between wins and losses.
Peterborough United have dropped three points but Posh move up two paces, although their deficit to the top two remains at five points.
Play-Offs
Bolton Wanderers and Derby County are both the big losers, dropping out of contention for the top two. In the second 45 of games, the two third-tier heavyweights have ten and eleven fewer points respectively. In the Rams case, it is particularly puzzling, given their total of eighteen goals in the final fifteen minutes of games is one of the highest in England this season.
The sixth and final Play-Off spot is a surprise, taken by Wigan Athletic. Now the Latics have had an eight-point deduction this campaign, so their positioning in this table isn’t reflective of that deduction. Despite this, the Lancashire outfit have picked up six more points in the second half of encounters. Another quirk is that Shaun Maloney’s side have won the same amount of games, but converting losses in draws has lifted their league positioning.
Leyton Orient and Lincoln City both rise two places, but only the Imps gain a point. Stevenage are the side that drops out of the top six, slipping to ninth. They are ten points worse off, changing the notion that they grind out results. Instead it is more likely that they are better early on in games, and frustrate their opponents in the second half. Both goalscoring and conceding are down for Steve Evans’s outfit, but most importantly for last season’s promoted side is that they occupy a top-six berth in the real table.
Blackpool are well in the Play-Off race, sitting only four points behind Boro, although they have played a game more. But they drop three places and slip nine points off the top six based on this metric. Oxford United suffered the greatest drop-off, falling to fourteenth and are ten points worse off.
Relegation
Three of the bottom four remain the same, but only Cheltenham Town occupy the same position. The Robins have picked up two more points, and their gap to safety is a point closer than in the normal standings. Carlisle United are effectively down this season, but in the second half they have picked up seven more points. With almost double the goals scored in the final 45 minutes, it’s clear to see that their performances improve as time goes on.
Replacing the Cumbrians at the bottom of the table is Shrewsbury Town, who have dropped a mammoth twelve points to sit 24th. The Shrews tally of eleven wins is down to just five, while their goal difference of -22 is almost as poor as their tally of -25 over the full 90.
Port Vale slip a place and three points to complete the bottom four. Climbing from 23rd to eighteenth place are Fleetwood Town, who have collected ten more points in the second half of games, thanks largely to their better defensive record. Reading and Cambridge United are big movers to steer themselves clear of the bottom four, although the Royals are seven points better off as their six-point deduction is excluded.
