xG. It’s a stat you can’t escape in football anymore. The result on the day may be decided purely by how many times it went ‘in the onion bag’, but expected goals can provide us with some good analysis.
Over the last couple of months, we have released articles showing what each EFL table would look like if it were based purely on xG. Looking at how your team does in that is a good indicator as to whether you’re overachieving, or the opposite. However, it is rarely talked about with individual players, but again, it can be a useful metric to not just look at a player’s xG over a season, but how they’ve overperformed that, which could indicate that they’re quite clinical.
Therefore, we’ve compared the Championship’s leading goal scorers to their expected goals total, to determine who has outperformed their value the most, with all stats being provided by Sofascore.
So here are the top five…
Morgan Whittaker – 17 goals from 8.56xG (8.44 Difference)
With Lazio one of the many clubs keeping a close eye on the young forward in the January window, it will be no surprise for fans to hear that he’s massively overachieving what is expected. Joining Plymouth Argyle on a permanent transfer from Swansea City in the summer for a reported fee of £1 million, Whittaker has gone from strength to strength, not only bagging 17 goals but also seven assists.
The difference in goals compared to expected goals here is staggering, showing how clinical the former Lincoln City loanee can be. With Argyle now five points above the relegation zone, and a hope that they can stay in the second tier, a big decision will need to be made in the upcoming off-season, as it would be expected that Whittaker would be the subject of more transfer offers. Until then, however, the Green Army can be glad they’ve got someone as good at finding the back of the net as he is.
Jonathon Rowe – 12 goals from 5.24xG (6.76 Difference)
Norwich City academy graduate Rowe is spending his first season as a regular starter at Carrow Road, and it is going better than he ever could have expected. Scoring 12 and grabbing a further two assists, he is currently his club’s top goalscorer. His clinical nature in front of goal has set him apart from other young forwards in the division this year, and at the rate he is going, Norwich may find it difficult to keep hold of the 20-year-old past the summer.
At the rate he is going, it would be unsurprising to see the left-winger pass through the 15 goal mark, and with his xg continuing to be in the single digits, he could even beat Whittaker in this stat come the end of the season. The Canaries will be hoping that his ability going forward can help carry them into the top six come May.
Jack Clarke – 15 goals from 10.25xG (4.75 Difference)
Sunderland winger Clarke has had an exceptional second full season at the Stadium of Light, following his half-season loan at the club in 2022. His 15 goals and four assists make him one of the league’s leading contributors, and doing so from an xG of only 10.25 is wildly impressive. Being able to take his chances is something Clarke has always been praised for.
With plenty of games left this season, the former-Leeds United man may be setting his sights on hitting double his tally from last season, which sat on nine. With Beale having been sacked, it remains to be seen what system Mike Dodds will wish to employ and thus whether the 23-year-old will be utilised to the best of his abilities, but either way, his adaptability has also shone this season.
Will Keane – 11 goals from 7.28xG (3.72 Difference)
Veteran forward Keane joined his current club Preston North End in the summer after being at Wigan Athletic for the three seasons prior. The 31-year-old’s success in front of goal has improved in recent years. His ruthlessness in the final third this season could mean he gets his record Championship goals haul. To achieve that, he only needs one more league goal, and with the amount he has been overperforming his xG, that seems well within reach.
The Irish forward began his career in the Manchester United academy, before numerous loans and then moving to Hull City on a permanent deal. Preston will be hoping that Keane keeps his clinical form for the final 13 games of the season, as they sit only five points outside of the playoff places.
Josh Sargent – 10 goals from 6.57xG (3.43 Difference)
The fifth and final player on this list is another Norwich player. American forward Sargent has been in exceptional form in front of goal this season, scoring ten and grabbing a single assist in only eleven starts. Injuries issues ruled him out for four months through the season, and if that were not the case, who knows how high his goalscoring numbers could have been.
Scoring five in his last four games, it seems very little is going to stop the former Werder Bremen man from increasing that tally. His return to the pitch, and his immediate return to form, has come at a great time for the Canaries as they hope to push into the top six places and aim for a return to the Premier League at the second time of trying.
