Finishing this week’s series on xG tables is our look at League Two.
You may have caught the xG tables for League One and the Championship earlier in the week – thousands did, and to wrap up the trilogy, we’re dipping into League Two to see if there are any teams doing well when their data suggests not.
For those who don’t know what xG is, it is a metric by which some stats providers rate the quality of a chance on goal. The higher your xG, the more goals you should have scored in a game. For instance, Walsall recently lost 2-0 to Barrow, but the xG data was 1.88 to Barrow and two for Walsall – they should have won the game 2-1 on the xG data.
We’ve got a league table for you that doesn’t take actual results into account but xG data. In our table, Walsall are awarded three points for their game against Barrow, whilst Pete Wild’s team get nothing. The idea is that we might be able to spot teams who have ridden their luck (Barnsley, in League One, for instance) or teams that have just not had the rub of the green but have created chances.
If a team has a good xG ranking, then there’s the potential for them to get better over the next few months. If their xG suggests they should be lower, you might have the early signs of a big collapse.
These stats are relevant to December 14th and do not take into account this weekend’s fixtures. Do be aware that different outlets do have slightly different xG outcomes – Fotmob, for instance, has an xG published straight after a game but is often less accurate than Wyscout, which is published up to 24 hours later.
Of all three divisions, League Two is the one where the actual table most closely resembles the xG table. That means most teams are in the ‘right’ position. For instance, Stockport are not only top, but they should be even further ahead – they’ve dropped eight points according to their xG data. The top six teams in terms of xG all come from the top seven of the real table, which suggests they’re all going to stay the course.
The one side who are punching above their xG data weight are Barrow – they’re third with 37 points in the real table but would only rank 14th with 24 points if the league were based on xG – could they be the ones to fall away from the automatic promotion hunt?
Of the midtable teams, Walsall and Grimsby fans can take heart – they’re underperforming their data, which does mean they could be placed for a late surge up the table. the Mariners, in 19th, should have 27 points rather than 23, whilst Walsall are three points shy of what they should have, having played one match fewer.
At the bottom, Morecambe fans might be entitled to worry. They’ve not only lost their manager recently, but they’re also massively outperforming their xG. If teams get sharper against them, or they stop putting those half-chances away, they could get sucked into a late relegation battle. Meanwhile, Sutton fans might already be aware of this, but the quality of their chances and their efficiency at keeping chances out at the other end is a fair representation of where they are – it looks like their struggle could be futile unless things change.
Where are your team? Is the xG table fair? Let us know on social media!
Editor In Chief
