With the November international break now behind us, full focus can return to domestic football. The Championship table is now taking shape and a number of clubs are already gearing up for a battle for survival. With 30 games left to play, renowned statistical experts Opta have run the data through their supercomputer to see which clubs will suffer the dreaded relegation…
Sheffield Wednesday returned to the second tier this season following a dramatic League One play-off final win over Barnsley in May. However, the campaign hasn’t gone to plan so far and they remain rooted to the foot of the table. Out went Xisco Munoz and in came Danny Rohl, with the German overseeing their first victory of the season with a 2-0 win over rivals Rotherham United last month.
The Millers have since decided to opt for a change of manager themselves, as well as fellow relegation candidates Queens Park Rangers, and it is that trio that currently make up the bottom three.
Despite the Championship being as tight as it has ever been, there is a gap opening up between the three relegation favourites and those above them. Huddersfield Town are the closest contenders, although they sit four points above the drop zone, whilst Coventry City and Plymouth Argyle sit a further point ahead.
Other clubs could still get pulled into the equation, although the likes of Birmingham City, Millwall, Norwich City and Millwall are as close to the play-off places as they are the relegation zone.
Who Will Be Relegated?
Opta’s supercomputer has compiled a mammoth amount of data by running 10,000 simulations based on each team’s current xG of every shot taken so far this season. Based on that, the results are hardly unsurprising.
Sheffield Wednesday’s stay in the Championship will be a brief one, and they are handed a staggering 96% chance of dropping out of the division. QPR and Rotherham are up next, with it also looking an almost foregone conclusion despite just 16 games having been completed. The Hoops are 83.3% certain to suffer the drop, whilst the South Yorkshire side are 74.6%.
It looks as if it would take a massive change of fortunes for any of the current bottom three to survive, but managerial changes could affect the situation as they all look for that immediate bounce. Huddersfield will be hoping not though, with them given a 20.3% chance of slipping into the third tier.
Plymouth came up as champions last season and would be happy to just cement their position in the Championship, although the 11.4% possibility of relegation still means that they could be pulled into the battle.
Staggeringly, Birmingham are up next, despite sitting sixth prior to the October international break. New manager Wayne Rooney has endured a torrid start to life at St Andrew’s and has picked up one point from his opening five games. As a result, the Blues now sit in 18th and are considered 6.8% likely to go down.
Chances of Relegation
- Sheffield Wednesday – 96.0%
- Queens Park Rangers – 83.3%
- Rotherham United – 74.6%
- Huddersfield Town – 20.3%
- Plymouth Argyle – 11.4%
- Birmingham City – 6.8%
- Coventry City – 1.9%
- Norwich City – 1.3%
- Millwall – 1.1%
- Bristol City – 0.8%
Overall, it is predicted that Sheffield Wednesday will finish a staggering 16 points off safety, with the simulations giving them an average of 33.2 points. Huddersfield comfortably survive on 49.5 points, whilst QPR and Rotherham suffer relegation with 38.8 and 40.9 points respectively.
Final Championship Table – Bottom 12
13th: Swansea City – 62.6 average points
14th: Bristol City – 61.4
15th: Watford – 60.7
16th: Millwall – 60.3
17th: Norwich City – 60.3
18th: Coventry City – 58.9
19th: Birmingham City – 54.4
20th: Plymouth Argyle – 51.9
21st: Huddersfield Town – 49.5
22nd: Rotherham United – 40.9
23rd: Queens Park Rangers – 38.8
24th: Sheffield Wednesday – 33.2
Head of Writing
