After all the drama of the League One play-off semi-finals, Sheffield Wednesday and Barnsley will embark on Wembley Stadium on Monday in a bid to reach the Championship. The outcome appears to be a toss of a coin, a view shared by popular supercomputer FiveThirtyEight.
All this season’s hard work comes down to this final 90 minutes (or 120 minutes plus penalties) at the national stadium and the two Yorkshire sides will be well aware of the prize at stake.
For Barnsley, this represents a chance to gain promotion at the first time of asking after suffering relegation from England’s second tier a year ago, whilst Wednesday suffered play-off heartbreak against eventual winners Sunderland last season.
What Led Us To This Point?
You’d have had to have been living under a rock to have missed the Owls remarkable comeback in the semi-final against Peterborough United. After losing 4-0 in the first leg at the Weston Homes Stadium, Darren Moore’s team needed a fightback of epic proportions to turn the tie around at Hillsborough.
We got just that as Wednesday raced into a two-goal lead in the first half before Reece James netted to make it a nervy finish for the East Midlands side. With time running out, Liam Palmer was on hand to score in the 98th minute to send the game into extra time.
Posh thought they may have gotten off the hook when striker Lee Gregory turned into his own net to make it 5-4 on aggregate before Callum Paterson added a fifth for the hosts in the second half of extra time to take the game to penalties, which Wednesday won 5-3.
It was a much more tepid affair in the other semi-final between Barnsley and Bolton Wanderers, although no less dramatic. The Tykes edged the first leg at Oakwell by a solitary goal, handing them a slender advantage ahead of the return tie at the University of Bolton Stadium.
A tight first half saw the teams head into the break goalless and Nicky Cadden gave the visitors some breathing space when he doubled Barnsley’s advantage just after the hour mark. However, Bolton hit back almost immediately through Dion Charles to put the tie back on a knife edge.
The Trotters had the lions share of the possession for much of the game but struggled to find a way through their opponent’s resilient defence, and Barnsley held on for a 2-1 aggregate win to progress to the final.
What Does The Supercomputer Say?
It’s always extraordinarily difficult to predict the outcome of a one-off game at a neutral venue, but Barnsley will be quietly confident after coming out on top in both prior meetings this season. On the flip side, the remarkable circumstances surrounding the Sheffield-based team’s win in the semi-final will equally give them cause for optimism.
This season’s two previous clashes have generated eight goals between them, and neutral fans will be hoping to see a goal fest in the capital. The supercomputer believes it will be a tight affair though and slightly favours Sheffield Wednesday.
Using data driven by a SPI rating, which considers each team’s form, injuries and goals scored and conceded in recent weeks, the algorithm calculates that there is a 52% chance that Wednesday will emerge victorious, meaning Barnsley are rated at 48%.
Writer’s View
It seems like justice that the third and fourth best teams in the league are the ones fighting it out for promotion in the final game of the League One season and both can hold their heads up high at the end of an excellent campaign.
Sheffield Wednesday’s 96 points would have seen them win the league last season and it is only the brilliance of Plymouth Argyle and Ipswich Town that prevented that this time around. Their never-say-die attitude against Peterborough must be a factor, although it will be interesting to see how much that comeback took out of them.
I expect the Owls to edge it, but this one could go all the way to penalties.
