With Leyton Orient, Stevenage and Northampton Town already assured of a spot in League One next season, it has come down to Stockport County, Carlisle United, Bradford City and Salford City to fight it out for the final promotion spot. As always, the play-offs are set to generate much drama and unpredictability, although supercomputer FiveThirtyEight has tried its luck at guessing who will taste elation at Wembley Stadium later this month.
It’s been a gruelling season for all four teams and the previous 46 games will mean nothing heading into the semi final ties. The first legs kick off this weekend as Salford entertain Stockport in a local derby on Saturday before Carlisle travel to Bradford on Sunday ahead of next week’s second legs.
Who Has The Momentum Leading Into The Play-offs?
None of the four clubs competing in the play-offs won their final fixture of the regular season yesterday, although Salford were made to sweat after losing 1-0 at home to Gillingham. Eighth placed Mansfield Town needed just one more goal at Colchester to pip the Ammies to the final spot but left it too late and ultimately fell short at the final hurdle.
Aside from that defeat, Salford’s recent form has been good and is better than that of both Bradford and Carlisle, but Stockport have not lost since going down by a solitary goal away at Barrow in February.
They’ll be favourites heading into their semi final having won 2-0 at the Peninsula Stadium earlier this season, with the reverse tie at Edgeley Park finishing 1-1.
Similarly, Carlisle will also be confident in their clash with Bradford having beaten the Bantams at Brunton Park on Boxing Day. However, the two meetings this season have been tight affairs with that 1-0 win during the festive period producing the only goal between the pair this season after a goalless draw at Valley Parade in March.
What Does The Supercomputer Say?
After just falling short in the race for automatic promotion, Stockport are considered the heavy favourites with a 34% chance of promotion. Whilst that figure seems low, the supercomputer cannot pick between the three other contenders and just 2% separates the trio.
Bradford are considered the second favourites at 23%, whilst Carlisle and Salford are handed a 22% and 21% chance respectively.
For Carlisle, it’s a step backwards. They sat third in the table at the beginning of March, and it was predicted at that point that they had a 48% chance of promotion. Meanwhile, Stockport have taken the biggest gain, jumping from 23% in the space of two months.
Writer’s View
I have to agree with the supercomputer and say that Stockport are my pick to continue their upward trend of recent years and return to England’s third tier for the first time in 13 years.
County have had an excellent last few months and have tasted defeat in the league just three times since the turn of the year.
Bradford can be considered outsiders, but none of the competing teams have managed to beat Stockport this season. Although that means nothing at this stage, it is certainly a major confidence boost for Dave Challinor’s team.