As the season draws to an end and the top of the table heating up, the other end of the table is just as interesting with five teams fighting for safety only two can survive. two names who face the drop will shock a few people this season, after success in the last two campaigns, the others are used to a scrap which could possibly play in their favour.
Let’s take a look at the table:
MK Dons:
Last season: 3rd
Remaining fixtures: Barnsley (H) Burton Albion (A)
It’s been a horrible season for The Dons, who find themselves sleepwalking into relegation, paying the price for not replacing their quality of last season when the likes of Scott Twine, Harry Darling, Conor Coventry and Troy Parrott left the club. It seems instead of reinvesting the money into similar quality MK Dons signed a mixture of players, with nowhere near the same performance levels, and whilst arguably it was always going to be difficult to sign the next Twine, the investment needed to be better.
The number of incomings this season is over ten but not much to quality to note, players like the returning Ethan Robsons haven’t set the same standards and the MK Dons lack a ball playing centre back which has been a catalyst for success over the last two campaigns.
There has been some bright sparks this season with the likes of Josh McEachran showing consistency and some promise with Maghoma in the middle, it’s been the lack of of a goal scorer which have cost the side dearly. Mo Eisa has shown some good form this season, but no one else has joined the party, and with Eisa being their top goal scorer with single digit returns, you can see why MK Dons have struggled to win games. This, combined with MK Dons woeful home form have been a combination of why they find themselves where they are, The Dons sit 23rd in league the home table and with high flying Barnsley next, you struggle to see where the win will come from.
Recent form will also be a concern as MK Dons haven’t won in their last six games, and with teams around them having a game in hand, they are going to need two HUGE performances to see themselves surviving the drop.
Oxford United:
Last season: 8th
Remaining fixtures: Cheltenham (H) Forest Green (A) Accrington Stanley (H)
Oxford are another team who not many football fans would have guessed would be facing relegation this season, after a play-off campaign two seasons ago, to having a consistent season last campaign, Oxford would have been looking to go once again, however poor recruitment and a lack of a goal scorer have put the U’s in some serious trouble.
Keeping their star man Cameron Brannagan in the summer after another transfer saga with Blackpool left Oxford fans buzzing when their captain opted for a new deal vs a move away, focus swiftly turned on their season and whether they could replicate their fantastic recent campaigns.
There were a few departures at the Kassam with a few leaders over the years departing, players such as Anthony Forde and Mark Sykes, another huge loss was Matt Taylor who has 64 goals for The U’s who surprised a few when leaving on deadline day, despite a slow start to the season, Taylor has undoubtedly been a pivotal player since rejoining in 2019.
Another departure which hurt Oxford was Luke McNally, who initially joined in 2021, left the club to join Burnley, despite that transfer not going well for the player, Oxford mate a decent profit from the defender.
Whilst The U’s signed a number of players, none replicated the goals the likes of Taylor produced over the years, Brannagan is the clubs top goal scorer with nine, and new signing Kyle Joseph on loan from Swansea has shown some great promise with seven goals this campaign. Oxford are one of the lowest goal scoring sides this season and whilst they haven’t conceded anywhere near as many around them, the lack of goals has been a recipe for disaster this season, which saw Karl Robinson lose his job and the promising Liam Manning take over. Since Manning took over, Oxford have failed into win in seven, but they have shown some signs of stabilizing after drawing five of those games, they ultimately need to score goals. The last three fixtures are in their favour, playing two teams below them, without those vital goals, Accrington will go to the Kassam hopeful of a victory.
If Oxford are going to survive, the home fans will need to hope their woeful season improves and with two games of three left at the Kassam their fate is in their own hands, but Mannings men will have to better their current 22nd position in the home table to survive.
Morecambe:
Last season: 19th
Remaining fixtures: Lincoln (H) Exeter (A)
It’s been an incredibly difficult season for Morecambe overshadowed by endless ownership dramas since September, when the club was put up for sale. Current manager Derek Adams has been vocal when it comes to his frustrations with the squad this year and will be left frustrated he couldn’t build on what was a decent campaign last season.
There’s undoubtedly been some bright sparks for the Shrimps this season with new signing Jensen Weir, topping their goal scoring charts with 10 goals so far this season, couple with three assists, Weir has proved an exceptional signing for Derek Adams men.
Things might of been different for Morecambe if free scoring Kieran Phillips didn’t get injured, Phillips scored seven goals before suffering an injury which cut his season short, his goals would prove a huge miss.
Despite conceding the fourth most goals this year, Connor Ripley has been a shining light for Morecambe, adding some much needed experience to the back line, making some important saves, add to that five penalty saves, two coming in a 1-1 draw vs promotion hopefuls Derby Country, which has clearly proved a vital point. Fans have also been impressed with the likes of Liam Gibson who has changed roles this season to defensive midfielder and Farrend Rawson who has shown ariel dominance throughout this campaign.
It’s going to be a huge battle to survive the drop but Morecambe have given themselves every chance with the Shrimps picking up seven points from their last 9, picking up decent wins vs Charlton and Wycome in the last few weeks, form and resilience which will need to be replicated when they take on a Lincoln side who are unbeaten in their last six.
Second top goal scorer Cole Stockton was back scoring bangers on the weekend in an inspired performance at Charlton, this is the Stockon the Shrimps need if they are going to beat the drop, Derek Adams will keep a composed head in the last two games which will prove vital as they seek to add a 9th victory at the Globe Arena when the imps arrive at the weekend. Win, and they have every hope going into the final game of the season, where they head to Exeter will have nothing to play for.
Cambridge United:
Last season: 14th
Remaining fixtures: Accrington Stanley (H) Burton (A) Forest Green (H)
Despite Cambridge not being able to replicate their fine season last year, their remaining fixtures will give them every hope they can survive the drop, two fixtures remaining at home, with everything in their own hands.
Cambridge have struggled to get a foothold of their season after they surprised everybody last season, Mark Bonners men will still look to beat the drop but naturally will have show nerves of steel against a Accrington side fighting for their lives this weekend.
During a season of lows, Cambridge have shown loyalty in Bonner, who has been a revelation for the U’s, winning promotion in 2021 and showing they can punch above their weight last season. Despite a poor season, Mark Bonners win percentage sits at 39% and they will hope sticking by him will pay off.
If United are going to beat the drop they will be looking for inspiration from top goal scorer Sam Smith who has 12 goals and one assist this season, more importantly the striker has showed promising form of late, scoring six in his last six, guiding Bonner’s men to win three in six.
Another shining light this season has been Harvey Knibbs, the attacking midfielder has nine goal contributions this season and has proved a pivotal player in the U’s campaign, however the forward will want a better return in the last three than the second half of the season, where he’s struggled to produce his desired contributions. Despite the numbers not being there, his performances have and Knibbs will be key if the U’s are going to beat the drop.
Cambridge find themselves in the relegation due to a woeful pre and post christmas, picking up just three wins between November and March, recent form has been much better, and whilst recent form has been better (3 wins and one draw) from their last six games, fans will feel fighting the drop could have been avoided if it wasn’t such a disappointing run earlier in the season. However, with games vs relegation rivals Accrington Stanley and already relegated Forest Green it’s all in the hands of Mark Bonners men.
Accrington Stanley
Last season: 12th
Remaining fixtures: Bolton (A) Cambridge (H) Oxford (A)
Last season proved to be a massive achievement for John Coleman’s men, building on the previous campaign with a solid mid table finish. This season has been exceptional tough, losing star striker Colby Bishop who has enjoyed himself in his first season at Pompey, Stanley have leaked goals (74) and found scored the second least goals (36) which put simply sees them with a mountain to climb.
After Bishops move away from the Wham stadium, Accrington have struggled to replace those goals, top goal scorer Tommy Leigh has experienced a somewhat reasonable season for a team they have struggled for goals, the stiker has seven goals, however the front man has only scored one in his last 14 games, which came in a 5-2 loss to local rivals, Fleetwood.
Mitchell Clark has been a highlight for Stanley, producing six assists from RB and shown versatility in a number of positions for John Coleman this season. Experienced winger Sean McConville has produced a decent return with nine goal contributions this season, but all in all, the forward line have failed to produce on too many occasions this campaign.
Accrington will need to show their willingness to fight has they look to add to their better home record than away when Cambridge arrive at the weekend, before that they face a huge test in travelling to Bolton, who have just lost three at home all season, the same number as Stanley have won away this campaign. With Bolton looking to secure a playoff spot, the odds are against them to cause an upset.
If there’s one thing John Coleman doesn’t shy away from and it’s fighting for the club and they league one strugglers will need some fight if they are going to survive, Accrington have only won back to back games twice this season and have lost four on the spin, worrying form for one of the leakiest defenses in the league.
Accrington will be boyd by the performance at Fratton Park, despite the loss, Stanley had 18 shots and six on target, whilst reducing Pompey to just two shots on target, unfortunately for them one ended up winning Portsmouth the game. They will need to show the same organisation and attacking threat in their last three fixtures if they hope to not find themselves back in league one.
My prediction… It’s going to be tight! Potentially a big surprise on our hands, it’s out of MK Dons hands and I don’t see them finding the form to pick up those vital wins, especially with Barnsley to play next. Oxford can’t buy a win currently and if they follow the current form.
Survival:
Morecambe
Cambridge
Relegation:
Oxford
MK Dons
Accrington Stanley
Already Relegated – Forest Green Rovers
