There is one promotion place to be decided in League One, with Derby County and Bolton Wanderers fighting it out to join Portsmouth in the Championship next season.
Peterborough United were knocked out of the running on Tuesday evening when their weakened side lost at Cheltenham Town, but Posh still have a part to play in the race for second.
Will there be celebrations in the East Midlands or in Lancashire come Saturday afternoon? Lets dive into the League One promotion race…
2nd: Derby County (89 Points) (+39)
Paul Warne is a promotion specialist from the third tier, and he has destiny in his own hands on the final day of the campaign. At times it has been a tough watch, and on numerous occasions, Warne has come under fire, notably at Stevenage at the end of October when he appeared to lose the support of fans. Even a couple of weeks ago, dropped points away at Wycombe Wanderers meant that their grip on second spot had weakened. But two wins in a row, along with dropped points for Bolton, means Derby are almost their ahead of the final day. The side from the East Midlands have never sealed promotion on their own patch, so expect joyous scenes at the final whistle at Pride Park if Derby do get over the line.
Opponents: Carlisle United (H) (24th)
Derby’s task looks as straightforward as can be on paper. The divisions’ bottom side, already relegated Carlisle await, but fans of the Rams will only remember games against Sheffield Wednesday (2023) and Reading (2015) when fate was in their hands and they failed to get the job done. An added dimension is that the Cumbrians manager Paul Simpson played over 150 times for the Rams, and was part of the coaching staff when Derby lost to QPR at Wembley in 2014. The East Midlands side will be keen to avoid the Play-Off, having failed to win promotion that way in each of their last five attempts since beating West Brom in 2007.
Win: The simplest way for Derby to gain promotion is by beating the Cumbrians. That would see the Rams maintain their three-point buffer at the very least, regardless of Bolton’s result.
Draw: A point is the maximum that is required, thanks to the gap between themselves and Bolton.
Loss: Defeat would still be enough to send the Rams into the Championship if Bolton fail to take all three points. If Bolton win, then a four-goal swing is required in the Trotters’ favour. Anything less than that will still mean the Rams are up, although this scenario would mean nerves on such a scale that words can’t do justice!
3rd: Bolton Wanderers (86 Points) (+35)
Ian Evatt will be bitterly disappointed that Bolton have all the work to do on the final day, given they had the upper hand only a few weeks ago. Wanderers did their bit last weekend by defeating Port Vale, but it may be vein as the Play-Offs look the likely outcome now. Even against the Valiants, the Trotters missed opportunities to add to their margin of victory, and that has been the story in the past few weeks as they have just been unable take crucial points. On their day many in Lancashire believe they are the best side in the division, but if they are to join Portsmouth in the second tier, then they have to hope for a miracle on Royal Way in Derbyshire.
Opponents: Peterborough United (A) (4th)
Bolton’s final-day quest takes them to Peterborough, and Posh will be keen to avoid a third successive defeat heading into the Play-Offs after their automatic hopes vanished earlier in the week. Darren Ferguson will be hoping that his side can pull the Trotters into the post-season competition, and there is a chance that the sides could meet at Wembley in three weeks’ time.
Win: Ian Evatt’s side have to win, that’s the bottom line. Coupled with a Derby loss, then goal difference comes into the equation. The Trotters are four worse in that respect, so they require scorelines such as the following: Peterborough 0-3 Bolton, Derby 0-1 Carlisle. In that case, the Trotters would snatch promotion on goals scored. Anything less, and it will be successive Play-Off campaigns.
Draw: N/A
Loss: N/A
