With all the drama of the League Two play-off semi finals now in the history books, Stockport County and Carlisle United will take the journey down to the capital to battle it out at Wembley Stadium for a place in League One. One-off fixtures like this are notoriously difficult to predict, but popular supercomputer FiveThirtyEight has run the data as to who is the most likely to emerge victorious.
Both teams have enjoyed a fantastic season, but it is even more remarkable for Stockport considering they were languishing in the National League North just four seasons ago. After winning the National League last season, they have taken League Two by storm and will be quietly confident of back-to-back promotions.
Equally, Carlisle have surprised many this season after finishing 20th last season and the appointment of Paul Simpson in February 2022 helped steer them away from a relegation fight. Ironically, the 56-year-old managed Stockport briefly between 2010 and 2011 and he will be hoping his team can get one over his former side at the national stadium.
What Led Us To This Point?
The play-off semi finals are always a tense affair and this season’s League Two ties were no different. Stockport were drawn against Salford City in the final four and lost the first leg by a solitary goal at the Peninsula Stadium.
The return leg at Edgeley Park was a similarly cagey affair and a second half goal from Isaac Olaofe for the hosts saw the game enter extra time. The Ammies thought they had won it when Stevie Mallan handed the visitors a 2-1 aggregate lead in the 112th minute, but Jack Stretton struck back to send the tie to penalties.
Salford struggled with the pressure, missing three of their four spot kicks as Stockport progressed to the final with a 3-1 shootout victory.
In the other tie, Bradford City took a 1-0 lead to Brunton Park, and extra time was needed again to separate the two teams as a Bradley Halliday own goal gave the Cumbrians a 1-0 win after 90 minutes.
Callum Guy extended the hosts lead in the first half of the additional 30 minutes, but the evergreen Matt Derbyshire levelled the tie just 30 seconds into the second period. However, Ben Barclay headed Carlisle back in front and they held out to secure a 3-2 aggregate win.
What Does The Supercomputer Say?
According to data driven by FiveThirtyEight, Stockport are the favourites to earn a spot in League One with a 58% chance of victory. The algorithm used by the supercomputer is driven by a SPI rating, which considers each team’s form, injuries and goals scored and conceded in recent weeks and the Hatters defeat in the semi final first leg was the first time they have been on the losing end since January.
Carlisle’s 42% probability will also consider the fact that they have not beaten their promotion rivals this season, losing 2-0 at Edgeley Park in October before playing out a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture in April.
Writer’s View
The supercomputer has Stockport as favourites and its easy to see why. Their form since the turn of the year has been excellent and it was only handful of draws towards the end of the campaign that saw them pipped to an automatic promotion spot by Northampton Town.
That’s not to write off Carlisle though, and Paul Simpson has worked wonders since returning to the club last year. That said, I expect Stockport to come out on top in a close encounter.
