With Leyton Orient and Stevenage securing the first two automatic promotion slots, it all goes down to the final day of the season to determine both third place, and the playoff positions, with only Northampton and Stockport guaranteed playoffs at the moment. That could all change on Wednesday night (3rd May) when Bradford travel to Crewe’s Gresty Road, where a win will take them level with Stockport on 78 points, but in fifth place due to their inferior goal difference.
Which games matter?
On League Two Final day there’s only a handful of games that are going to affect promotions, playoffs, and relegation, and all of them include teams in the top eight:
Bradford City v Leyton Orient
Colchester United v Mansfield Town
Salford City v Gillingham
Stockport County v Hartlepool United (shown live on Sky Sports)
Tranmere Rovers v Northampton Town (shown live on Sky Sports)
Who can finish third?
Northampton Town currently sit in third position in League Two with 80 points, two clear of fourth-placed Stockport, but with a much weaker goal difference. If Bradford beat Crewe on Wednesday they could also be in contention. Northamptoin need a win to guarantee automatic promotion – anything less from their tie at Tranmere Rovers and Stockport or Bradford could snatch third with a home win over relegated Hartlepool United or champions Leyton Orient, respectively. Northampton have been in decent form recently, but will have been unsettled by Bradford’s last-minute winner last week, Tranmere’s excellent home record (1.64 PPG), and ‘the Northampton Curse’. Tranmere Rovers are also on good form, but against lower-placed opposition with the exception of Swindon. The Sky Sports cameras do also bring an element of pressure to both teams, and the Tranmere players will be looking to impress going into contract renewals and the transfer window.
Why on earth are Northampton cursed?
This time last year, with a comfortable goal difference (+5) lead, Northampton went into the final game of the season knowing that a win would be enough for automatic promotion. Despite winning 3-1 against Barrow, Bristol Rovers beat Scunthorpe 7-0 to snatch third place. With history repeating itself, but this time with two clear points over closest rivals Stockport, their game with Tranmere Rovers will be televised by Sky.
What about playoffs?
Here’s where it gets really fun (unless you’re a Mansfield fan). Only one of the teams in contention for playoffs will miss out – it’s mathematically impossible for Barrow in 9th to make the cut. Only Northampton and Stockport are guaranteed a playoff spot going into Monday’s game, plus Bradford depending on the outcome of Wednesday’s game, and looking at the numbers it’s most likely to be Mansfield that misses out, as even if Salford, Carlisle or Bradford (all on 75 points) lose, and Mansfield win, their goal difference of +15 is dwarfed by Carlisle on +23, and Salford and Bradford on +19. The most likely outcome, assuming Northampton win, is that Stockport finish 4th, Bradford 5th, Carlisle 6th, and Salford 7th, which will see Stockport play Salford, and Bradford take on Carlisle in the semi-finals.
Are any relegations still to be decided?
No – at the other end of the table everything is confirmed, with Rochdale and Hartlepool joining the National League for the 23-24 season. Wrexham will be joining League Two, along with the winner of the National League playoffs, which is yet to take place, but if last year’s games are anything to go by, we can expect guaranteed Vana’drama’.
