As we enter the final weeks of the season, the top of the league two table is closer than it’s ever been, with Stockport County leapfrogging Carlisle and Stevenage into third position after their definitive 4-0 win over Newport County at Edgeley Park on Easter Monday.
Stockport were the only League Two team to take six points over Easter weekend, with their league neighbours all dropping points, and Stockport, Carlisle, and Stevenage now all equal on 70 points in 3rd, 4th, and 5th positions, respectively. Leyton Orient, Stevenage, Bradford, and Mansfield all head into the last four weeks with a game in hand, which could be an important points grab for Stevenage in 5th.
Carlisle’s (currently in 4th) promotion prospects could also be impacted by a difficult run-in including Northampton on Saturday, Stockport on Tuesday, and then Salford at the end of the month, who are all on good form at the moment.
Given the number of League Two upsets recently, there are no easy games or dead certs as we go into the last month of the regular season, and the fight for automatic, and play-off positions is fierce. As fans from all eight teams in contention search desperately for any signs, omens, predictions or odds that add any optimism, we look at the odds for promotion to League One.
The Odds
Perhaps the most traditional in terms of assessing promotion probability, when it comes to lower league football, the bookmakers (Skybet, odds as offered at 11.24am on 11th April 2023) can be more sensitive to irregularities due to betting patterns, and not based on as much tacit knowledge as for other leagues. It is most likely that in generating these odds they are based on the outcome of previous head-to-heads in the games left to play, rather than form across the league as a whole, and little to no consideration of changes in form of their opposition .
Leyton Orient – 1/1000
Stevenage – 4/11
Northampton – 4/7
Stockport – 4/7
Carlisle – 6/5
Bradford – 6/4
Mansfield – 7/2
Salford – 7/2
If anyone’s interested, you can also get 500/1 odds on Grimsby. For more of a safe bet, Leyton Orient are clearly expected to be the nailed on League Two champions, probably within the next few games. The next few sets of odds are more interesting given the teams’ recent results. Stevenage’s odds of 4/11 are somewhat optimistic given that they are currently 20th in the form table over the last five games, with four losses and one draw. Their upcoming games include AFC Wimbledon, Doncaster Rovers, Grimsby Town, and Barrow, all of which they would be expected to win based on their form earlier in the season.
Northampton’s comparatively better form would make them a safer bet, with three wins and one loss from their last five matches. Stockport’s odds do make sense if they can maintain their current form. Their 4-0 win over Newport on Monday was vital for their goal difference – if they lose that advantage then Carlisle go ahead based on goals scored. Carlisle though, have a tough few weeks of games ahead of them, and if the results go against them, as they so easily could given their single win from the last five games. Held to a goalless draw on Monday by a 10-man Walsall, Carlisle could even slip out of the play-off positions if they don’t manage to turn their recent form around.
What is a dead cert, is that by the time the 28th May playoff final comes around, there will have been some more twists and turns, that no-one has seen coming.