Nicke Kabamba scored his first Barnet goal after a fairly major injury layoff last weekend with a penalty against 23rd-placed Dorking Wanderers during a 6-0 thrashing at The Hive.
This means that the 31-year-old now has 46 goals in 96 games for the Bees which is a ratio of 0.48 goals per game. By contrast, Barnet legend John Akinde netted 90 times in 177 appearances in North London, which comes to 0.52 goals per game.
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Given that Kabamba has recently signed a new three-and-a-half-year contract for the Bees, it seems reasonable to wonder whether he will be able to surpass Akinde and become the first Barnet player to score 100 goals in the 21st century.
In order to accurately predict an outcome, a number of key questions need to be answered. Firstly, will Kabamba be able to handle a step up in divisions? Secondly, will the former Kilmarnock man be able to score prolifically under a new manager? Finally, how likely is it that Kabamba remains a regular starter for the Bees over the next three seasons?
It is important to note that this is a judgement of pure goalscoring, which is more quantifiable, rather than legacy or impact which is more qualitative.
A Change In Divisions
Arguably Kabamba’s biggest challenge will be adapting to a change in division. The Bees have been building towards a return to the Football League over the last 24 months and look to be in pole position to achieve promotion via the playoffs this season despite still having tricky league games against the likes of Solihull Moors and Bromley to deal with.
With a promotion comes 23 fully-fledged professional sides with higher-quality defenders and more tactically astute coaches for Kabamba to deal with. His record in the Football League might not fill supporters with optimism; 34 EFL appearances, mostly in League Two, and zero goals.
On the contrary, Akinde had amassed just over 100 EFL appearances before he gained promotion with the Bees, 16 of which came in the Championship. This prior experience would have proved vital to the former Bristol City man upon his return to the Football League.
But, it should be noted that Akinde only scored 12 goals in those 105 EFL appearances, it was not as if he was a proven League Two striker when he returned to the Football League in 2015.
Additionally, the Conference/National League has become increasingly professional over the last 10 years and the gap in quality between the fifth tier and the fourth tier is much smaller now than it was before (hence the calls for three up, three down). This may mean that Kabamba is more suited to handling the step-up in divisions than Akinde.
Managerial Changes
Dean Brennan has repeatedly spoken about Kabamba as a player who had been misunderstood by managers prior to arriving in North London. The 6’3″ attacker was either used as a basic target man due to his height and strength or as a sort of target winger due to his agility and work rate.
Brennan has been able to extract the best out of the number nine by asking him to stay central and vary his movement between dropping deep and holding up the ball and running in behind.
But, the Irishman is regarded as a promising young manager and he could easily be poached by a team further up the football pyramid if the Bees’ success continues. This could mean that Kabamba runs the risk of being misunderstood once again, thus leading to his goal output dropping.
Martin Allen was the manager for most of Akinde’s time at Barnet, but he was still able to score prolifically as there were multiple managerial changes in his final two years at the club. For example, in the 2016/2017 season, Akinde scored 26 times in 46 games under three different managers to win the League Two Golden Boot, thereby showing that his goalscoring ability almost transcends tactical systems.
That being said, Akinde did suffer the season after when there were four different managers and he only scored seven league goals in 32 games.
Honouring The Contract
A three-and-a-half-year contract is extremely long at this level of football and there is no guarantee that Kabamba is the Bees’ starting striker for the entire length of the deal.
Brennan has already shown that he is not afraid of benching a fan-favourite and regular starter in the pursuit of progress as he signed the Republic of Ireland under-21 international Josh Keeley to replace Laurie Walker in goal.
There is no reason that the same thing will not happen to Kabamba, especially if he starts next season slowly and a promising youngster, like current loanee Gatlin O’Donkor, is available. This could lead to Kabamba wanting to leave for regular minutes given that he is in his prime age-wise.
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With Kabamba being 31 years old, he may also decide to leave North London if he receives a lucrative financial offer. Many clubs in the fifth tier are spending big in order to try and get back to the Football League and Kabamba is a proven National League goalscorer who many teams would pay good money for. He would be silly to refuse a big payday near the end of his career in order to strengthen his Barnet legacy.
There is also the possibility that the Bees transfer list Kabamba if they get relegated. This is what happened with Akinde, who had time remaining on his contract at the end of the 2017/2018 season when he was transfer-listed in order to raise funds. This limited Akinde’s goalscoring numbers and stopped him from joining the Barnet 100 club.
Will Kabamba Outscore Akinde?
It is clear that a lot of things have to go right in order for Kabamba to even get near Akinde’s goalscoring numbers. But, if he continues to exhibit the hard work and determination that he has shown in black and amber so far, there is no reason why he can’t break the record.
The long-term deal which he has signed should give him confidence and assuredness which will translate into goals and the attacking style of football that Brennan likes to deploy needs someone like Kabamba to finish off the numerous chances that are created.
Additionally, if Brennan were to leave, two of the top candidates to replace him would be Mel Gwinnett and Connor Smith, both of whom have been part of the 43-year-old’s coaching staff and will therefore know how to get the best out of Kabamba.
