On the 7th of November, Oxford United supporters were left devastated following the news that head coach Liam Manning was set to leave the club to take up the vacant managerial position with Championship outfit Bristol City.
The U’s were in dreamland, sitting in second place in League One after a tremendous start to the campaign, having picked up ten victories in their first 15 matches. By that point, Oxford also boasted the second-best defensive record and the third-best attacking record in the third tier.
In the aftermath of Manning’s departure, Craig Short was handed the reins on an interim basis for the second time that year, having previously taken charge of the first-team following Karl Robinson’s sacking back in February 2023. The 55-year-old guided Oxford to an emphatic 5-0 win over Chelsea’s U21s in the EFL Trophy as well as a 3-2 victory away at newly-promoted Leyton Orient.
The board made an interesting decision to appoint Des Buckingham as Manning’s permanent successor in the Kassam Stadium dugout, handing him a three-and-a-half-year deal for his troubles to keep him at the club until 2027. Buckingham, a former youth player and coach with the club, re-joined Oxford United as a winner of the Indian Super League with Mumbai City in which his side broke 15 records along the way.
Unlike his predecessor, the 39-year-old had no previous experience as a men’s head coach in English football, but his CV from his time in India was certainly impressive. Unfortunately, Buckingham’s tenure got off to the worst possible start with a 2-0 defeat away at a rejuvenated Cheltenham Town under Darrell Clarke.
Since his appointment, Oxford’s form has practically fallen off a cliff. In 26 matches in charge in all competitions, Buckingham has guided the U’s to merely eight wins, seven draws and a whopping 11 defeats. In League One, the team have picked up just 25 points in total under his tutelage in 22 games. To add further context to this, the side recorded 35 points following the first 16 matches of the campaign.
After a recent run of only two victories from 12 fixtures, Buckingham’s men now sit eighth in the league table, a far cry from the second-place position Manning had left them in. Furthermore, since Buckingham took control of the team in mid-November, Oxford United are 17th in the form table. Only Charlton Athletic, Shrewsbury Town, Cambridge United, Burton Albion, Fleetwood Town, Port Vale and Carlisle United have registered fewer points than the promotion hopefuls.
Des Buckingham reacts to defeat at Bolton.
See the full interview on iFollow 📺 pic.twitter.com/nCifdsTSHo
— Oxford United (@OUFCOfficial) March 12, 2024
On Tuesday night, Oxford were manhandled by Bolton Wanderers at the Toughsheet Community Stadium in a gruelling, startling, yet slightly unsurprising defeat. Perhaps the most damning statistic from the night wasn’t even the scoreline, but the fact that the visitors, a possession-based side under Manning, held merely 36% of the ball and failed to have a single shot on target. Buckingham once outlined his own tactical philosophy in an interview with the Coaches’ Voice last year whilst at Mumbai City:
“We’re very clear on how we want to play. We’re a team that will always have around 60 per cent possession. We’ll always try to outpass our opponents, to outshoot our opponents. Our approach is always to go out to win a game, in the way that we say we want to do it. Attacking football.”
Manning proved he could achieve this during his time at the Kassam Stadium but jumped ship to another project once an opportunity to move up a level presented itself. Now, Buckingham is finding it incredibly difficult to replicate the side’s form and style from earlier in the campaign. But can the blame solely be pinned on the current man at the helm?
There is a case to be made that Oxford United have simply regressed to their means. It was clear that the side were overperforming under Manning. Given the budgets of some of their promotion rival, the U’s were always going to find it difficult to sustain this pursuit of promotion. Hindsight, of course, is 20/20, but there is a strong possibility that Oxford would have regressed to their mean even with Manning in charge. After all, the Bristol City boss won only one of his final four league matches in the dugout, a run which included a 2-0 defeat away at Wigan Athletic and a 2-2 draw at home to Wycombe Wanderers.
Even during the 3-2 win at Leyton Orient under Short, the side were 3-0 up at half-time and almost dropped two points in the second half. This issue of dropping points from winning positions after the interval is not solely an issue under Buckingham but is actually part of a greater trend from Oxford United in this campaign. If all matches ended after 45 minutes, the U’s would be top of the league.
Oxford tend to drop off in the second halves of games, a trend that started prior to Buckingham’s appointment in mid-November and one which has carried on for the rest of the campaign. Hindsight has meant that Buckingham was in charge when United fell out of the automatic promotion spots, but there was always a high probability that this would happen, regardless of who was in charge.
Overall, parallels can be drawn with Birmingham City in the division above. The West Midlands club massively punched above their weight early on in the season and were sitting inside the Championship playoff places until the board made a controversial decision to sack the manager, John Eustace, and replace him with Wayne Rooney. This decision was an unmitigated disaster, but it always seemed likely that the Blues would regress to their means which is, unfortunately, at the bottom half of the table given the current crop of players available.
Additionally, when Manning left his post at the beginning of November, Derby County were outside the playoffs, Northampton Town were flirting with the relegation zone and Port Vale were sitting in mid-table. As the season wore on, certain teams grew stronger and others went in the opposite direction, Oxford United being in the latter group. Sustaining performances far above your means is such an arduous task over the course of a 46-game season, hence why Stevenage have been so admirable in this campaign, although even Steve Evans’ men have won only two of their previous eight league outings and are also now showing clear signs of regression to their mean.
This isn’t to say that Buckingham is blameless. Ultimately, he’s the head coach and so the buck stops with him. Results haven’t been good enough but the board believe they’ve appointed the right man, proven by the lengthy contract he was handed when taking over from Manning.
All is not lost, either. Tuesday’s demoralising result was a damning indictment of Buckingham’s time at the helm, but Oxford United remain just a point behind the playoff places and could well be back inside the top six by Saturday afternoon when the U’s travel to relegation-threatened Port Vale. After all, finishing inside the top six is the aim this season, however which way it happens.
Deputy Head of Writing
