Nigel Clough’s Mansfield Town made an impressive unbeaten start but Wrexham and their Hollywood owners were tipped as favourites. Crewe Alexandra have punched above their weight while the Class of ‘92 struggle to find a working formula at Salford City.
As we enter the final stages of the 2023-24 season, who will come out on top, who will look back at a successful campaign and who will want to forget it altogether? Below is how the League Two table will look at the end of April based on the current points per game return.
1st – Stockport County
Predicted points: 90
2nd – Mansfield Town
Predicted points: 89
3rd – Wrexham
Predicted points: 84
4th – Crewe Alexandra
Predicted points: 81
5th – Barrow
Predicted points: 76
6th – Milton Keynes Dons
Predicted points: 75
7th – Morecambe
Predicted points: 70
8th – Notts County
Predicted points: 69
9th – Harrogate Town
Predicted points: 69
10th – Gillingham
Predicted points: 69
11th – AFC Wimbledon
Predicted points: 68
12th – Accrington Stanley
Predicted points: 66
13th – Newport County
Predicted points: 63
14th – Bradford City
Predicted points: 61
15th – Crawley Town
Predicted points: 61
16th – Walsall
Predicted points: 59
17th – Swindon Town
Predicted points: 56
18th – Tranmere Rovers
Predicted points: 53
19th – Salford City
Predicted points: 51
20th – Doncaster Rovers
Predicted points: 48
21st – Grimsby Town
Predicted points: 44
22nd – Colchester United
Predicted points: 43
23rd – Forest Green Rovers
Predicted points: 34
24th – Sutton United
Predicted points: 31
Automatic Promotion
Mansfield made a great start to the campaign, losing only once in their opening 20 matches. However, nine draws from those games saw a return of 36 points and meant they were already six points adrift of leaders Stockport.
Much was expected of Stockport County and Wrexham at the start of the campaign and, should they continue with their current points per game return, both will achieve promotion. The Hatters will be crowned champions, with The Stags taking second spot and men from Wales breaking Crewe hearts to steal third place.
The Playoffs
Crewe currently occupy third but are predicted to miss out on automatic promotion due to Wrexham’s two games in hand.
The predictions see Barrow and MK Dons finishing as they currently stand, in fifth and sixth respectively.
The biggest winners, however, could well be Morecambe who are set to jump from their current spot of 11th and snatch the final playoff place. This will lead to heartbreak for fans of Notts County, Harrogate and Gillingham who will all fall just short.
Mid-table – 10th to 17th
The Gills are set to drop a place to 10th, which will in turn bump AFC Wimbledon back to 11th, due to Morecambe making the end-of-season showdown.
Accrington, Newport County, Crawley and Walsall will take 12th, 13th, 15th and 16th spots. Certainly Crawley have proved people wrong with their showing this season, not least the Real EFL writers who made their predictions before the start of the campaign.
Two sides who will be disappointed with the predicted outcomes are Bradford and Swindon, with lowly 14th and 17th place finishes on the cards for the two former top flight clubs.
The Bantams would have hoped to build on last season’s playoff disappointment under Mark Hughes but another season in League Two looks to be on the cards for the men from Valley Parade.
The Relegation Scrap
Whether the race to stay in the Football League counts as a scrap is up for debate, with two teams cut adrift and predicted to be relegated by at least nine points.
Sutton United are set to finish bottom with Forest Green Rovers in line for a successive relegation, this time back out of the Football League.
Both sides are on course to be in the top 10 for lowest points in League Two over the last 20 years.
However, Colchester (22nd) and Grimsby (21st) will be grateful for the poor form of the two below as their predicted points of 43 and 44 would have had them in a much tighter battle in years gone by.
Doncaster, Salford and Tranmere are predicted to complete the bottom seven. A highly disappointing season for all three, with Gary Neville’s Salford finding life in League Two more of a struggle than they had envisaged.
League Two is not alone in expecting twists and turns before the end of the season. League One’s points per game table throws up a shock or two for the end of the campaign.
