Peterborough promoted, Tranmere saved – Is this the way to solve the football crisis?

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With the upheaval and uncertainty in the world right now, football is right down the list of importance.

However, the current football season must be finished one way or another. The one way we hope it will be finished is by the resumption of football on April 30th, but with fatalities rising day by day, football resuming seems highly unlikely, at least in front of supporters.

There may be a call for games to be played behind closed doors, an obvious option for the upper echelons of the football world. With the amount of money at stake, that seems to be the clear favourite of many, but where does the ‘Real’ EFL find itself? Sure, Liverpool might be able to settle the Premier League behind closed doors, but the National League looks set to end its season now, which could well be an option in League One and Two.

One method of separating teams in non-league that is being suggested is points per game, giving those with games in hand their advantage back. Some might argue teams who had a difficult start but did well after managerial changes could lose out that way, so perhaps points per game over a set period of recent form, say eight matches, could also work?

Both are hypothetical ideas at the moment, but we’ve crunched some numbers to come up with the promotion and relegation station in both of our divisions, should these options be enforced.

Could Peterborough miss out on a promotion? Are Tranmere able to get out of the bottom three? Can anything save Stevenage? The answers are on the next couple of pages.

League One – Points Per Game Whole Season

If we were to end the season now, taking points per game into consideration, then in League One it would be the top three teams who would be promoted, as play-offs really wouldn’t matter. There wouldn’t be any point in ending the season now, but leaving the play-offs still to be played.

The winners of the division under this system would be Coventry City, who have 67 points and averaged 1.97 points per game. That would see them finish on 87 points assuming the FA chose to round up to the nearest full point. As they’re top right now, there wouldn’t be a huge amount of unfairness.

Rotherham, with 1.77 points per game and 62 points currently, would finish second, which is where they’re currently placed. The big movers would be Wycombe Wanderers, currently in eighth. They have a game in hand and would leap to third, claiming what would most likely be the last promotion spot.

If there were some way the play-offs could be played, which seems unlikely, then Wycombe would be joined by Fleetwood, Oxford and Portsmouth, with Peterborough missing out and likely bringing a lawsuit against the FA.

Down at the bottom in-form Tranmere would be the biggest losers. They’ve been in great form and looked on for a great escape, but if points per game over the whole season were used, they’d finish third from bottom with 41 points, three shy of AFC Wimbledon.

Current Team P W D L F A GD PTS PPG L8PPG GL PPG1
1  Coventry City 34 18 13 3 48 30 18 67 1.97 2.75 10 87
2  Rotherham 35 18 8 9 61 38 23 62 1.77 1.88 9 78
8  Wycombe 34 17 8 9 45 40 5 59 1.74 1.5 10 76
5  Fleetwood 35 16 12 7 51 38 13 60 1.71 2.25 9 75
3  Oxford Utd 35 17 9 9 61 37 24 60 1.71 2 9 75
4  Portsmouth 35 17 9 9 53 36 17 60 1.71 1.63 9 75
6  Peterborough 35 17 8 10 68 40 28 59 1.69 2.38 9 74
7  Sunderland 36 16 11 9 48 32 16 59 1.64 1.75 8 72
9  Doncaster 34 15 9 10 51 33 18 54 1.59 1.63 10 70
11  Gillingham 35 12 15 8 42 34 8 51 1.46 1.88 9 64
10  Ipswich Town 36 14 10 12 46 36 10 52 1.44 0.5 8 64
12  Burton Albion 35 12 12 11 50 50 0 48 1.37 0.88 9 60
13  Blackpool 35 11 12 12 44 43 1 45 1.29 1.38 9 57
14  Bristol Rovers 35 12 9 14 38 49 -11 45 1.29 0.88 9 57
16  Shrewsbury 34 10 11 13 31 42 -11 41 1.21 0.88 10 53
15  Lincoln City 35 12 6 17 44 46 -2 42 1.2 0.63 9 53
17  Accrington 35 10 10 15 47 53 -6 40 1.14 1.25 9 50
19  Rochdale 34 10 6 18 39 57 -18 36 1.06 1 10 47
18  Milton Keynes 35 10 7 18 36 47 -11 37 1.06 1.5 9 47
20  AFC Wimbledon 35 8 11 16 39 52 -13 35 1 0.88 9 44
21  Tranmere 34 8 8 18 36 60 -24 32 0.94 1.25 10 41
22  Southend Utd 35 4 7 24 39 85 -46 19 0.54 0.75 9 24
23  Bolton 34 5 11 18 27 66 -39 14 0.76 0.38 10 22

League Two – Points Per Game Whole Season

This system would see a change of leader in League Two, with Crewe currently top but having played a game more. Swindon are in second place and the PPG method of finishing the season would see them crowned champions with 88 points. Crewe would still be promoted in second place with 86 points and Plymouth would remain in third and thus be promoted with 85 points.

Then the play-off question would be answered. If there were no play-offs and the top four were to go up, Cheltenham would be rewarded with third-tier football for the first time since 2009. They’re currently one point behind Exeter City, but have played a game less. However, if the play-offs were to be played, League Two would be a case of ‘as you were’, with all four of the teams (Northampton and Colchester the other two) currently in the play-off spots remaining there under PPG.

Stevenage will need more than this to save them though, they’d still be relegated with 12 points between them and Morecambe.

Current GP W D L GF GA GD Pts      Form PP1
2  Swindon Town 36 21 6 9 62 39 23 69 1.92 88
1  Crewe Alexandra 37 20 9 8 67 43 24 69 1.86 86
3  Plymouth 37 20 8 9 61 39 22 68 1.84 85
5  Cheltenham 36 17 13 6 52 27 25 64 1.78 82
4  Exeter City 37 18 11 8 53 43 10 65 1.76 81
6  Colchester 37 15 13 9 52 37 15 58 1.57 72
7  Northampton 37 17 7 13 54 40 14 58 1.57 72
8  Port Vale 37 14 15 8 50 44 6 57 1.54 71
9  Bradford 37 14 12 11 44 40 4 54 1.46 67
11  Forest Green 36 13 10 13 43 40 3 49 1.36 63
10  Salford City 37 13 11 13 49 46 3 50 1.35 62
14  Walsall 36 13 8 15 40 49 -9 47 1.31 60
12  Crawley Town 37 11 15 11 51 47 4 48 1.3 60
15  Newport 36 12 10 14 32 39 -7 46 1.28 59
13  Grimsby 37 12 11 14 45 51 -6 47 1.27 58
16  Cambridge Utd 37 12 9 16 40 48 -8 45 1.22 56
17  Leyton Orient 36 10 12 14 47 55 -8 42 1.17 54
18  Carlisle Utd 37 10 12 15 39 56 -17 42 1.14 52
19  Oldham 37 9 14 14 44 57 -13 41 1.11 51
20  Scunthorpe 37 10 10 17 44 56 -12 40 1.08 50
21  Mansfield 36 9 11 16 48 55 -7 38 1.06 49
22  Macclesfield 37 7 15 15 32 47 -15 32 0.97 41
23  Morecambe 37 7 11 19 35 60 -25 32 0.86 40
24  Stevenage 36 3 13 20 24 50 -26 22 0.61 28

League One – Points Per Game Last Eight Matches

There might be a call for the FA to consider points per game over an extended period, say the last eight matches. In terms of fairness, this might be a more accurate way of simulating the end to a season as it takes into account which sides were in form, perhaps who had strong January windows or who have made managerial changes.

The big winners here would be Tranmere. Under a PPG model taking eight games into account, they’d leapfrog AFC Wimbledon and finish fourth from bottom, securing League One status. At the top, Coventry would finish as title winners with 95 points, having picked up 2.75 points per game in their last eight matches.

The other big winners would be Peterborough, who would finish second after their impressive recent run. Under this method, Fleetwood would finish third, whilst the next sides down would be Oxford, Portsmouth and Wycombe. For the record, neither method offers any respite for ailing Southend and Bolton.

Current Team P W D L F A GD PTS L8PPG PPG2
1  Coventry City 34 18 13 3 48 30 18 67 2.75 95
6  Peterborough 35 17 8 10 68 40 28 59 2.38 80
5  Fleetwood 35 16 12 7 51 38 13 60 2.25 80
2  Rotherham 35 18 8 9 61 38 23 62 1.88 79
3  Oxford Utd 35 17 9 9 61 37 24 60 2 78
4  Portsmouth 35 17 9 9 53 36 17 60 1.63 75
8  Wycombe 34 17 8 9 45 40 5 59 1.5 74
7  Sunderland 36 16 11 9 48 32 16 59 1.75 73
9  Doncaster 34 15 9 10 51 33 18 54 1.63 70
11  Gillingham 35 12 15 8 42 34 8 51 1.88 68
13  Blackpool 35 11 12 12 44 43 1 45 1.38 57
10  Ipswich Town 36 14 10 12 46 36 10 52 0.5 56
12  Burton Albion 35 12 12 11 50 50 0 48 0.88 56
14  Bristol Rovers 35 12 9 14 38 49 -11 45 0.88 53
17  Accrington 35 10 10 15 47 53 -6 40 1.25 51
18  Milton Keynes 35 10 7 18 36 47 -11 37 1.5 51
16  Shrewsbury 34 10 11 13 31 42 -11 41 0.88 50
15  Lincoln City 35 12 6 17 44 46 -2 42 0.63 48
19  Rochdale 34 10 6 18 39 57 -18 36 1 46
21  Tranmere 34 8 8 18 36 60 -24 32 1.25 45
20  AFC Wimbledon 35 8 11 16 39 52 -13 35 0.88 43
22  Southend Utd 35 4 7 24 39 85 -46 19 0.75 26
23  Bolton 34 5 11 18 27 66 -39 14 0.38 18

 

League One – Points Per Game Last Eight Matches

This method would offer Cheltenham Town guaranteed League One football next season, as they’ve been the form team in League Two over the last eight matches. Averaging 2.38 points per game, they’d climb into third and be promoted behind champions Swindon and second-placed Crewe. Plymouth, who are currently third, would drop to fourth but likely also go up as the play-offs would surely be a doubt.

If the play-offs did go ahead, Northampton would be the big losers, dropping out of the top seven with 1.13 points per game over the last eight. Port Vale would benefit, they’ve been in great form and would leap into sixth, above Colchester. Stevenage, with no points in eight games, would be relegated with the likely replacements being Barrow and Harrogate.

The likelihood of either of these methods being used is slim, but it is one way which could be used to finish the season and reward teams who have done well. Interestingly, there is little doubt about the relegation places, with both models only seeing one slight change, Tranmere for Wimbledon in League One.

Current GP W D L GF GA GD Pts last 8 PP2
2  Swindon Town 36 21 6 9 62 39 23 69 2 89
1  Crewe Alexandra 37 20 9 8 67 43 24 69 2.13 88
5  Cheltenham 36 17 13 6 52 27 25 64 2.38 88
3  Plymouth 37 20 8 9 61 39 22 68 1.75 84
4  Exeter City 37 18 11 8 53 43 10 65 1.38 77
8  Port Vale 37 14 15 8 50 44 6 57 2 75
6  Colchester 37 15 13 9 52 37 15 58 1.5 72
7  Northampton 37 17 7 13 54 40 14 58 1.13 68
10  Salford City 37 13 11 13 49 46 3 50 1.75 66
9  Bradford 37 14 12 11 44 40 4 54 1 63
12  Crawley Town 37 11 15 11 51 47 4 48 1.63 63
13  Grimsby 37 12 11 14 45 51 -6 47 1.63 62
14  Walsall 36 13 8 15 40 49 -9 47 1.38 61
16  Cambridge Utd 37 12 9 16 40 48 -8 45 1.63 60
17  Leyton Orient 36 10 12 14 47 55 -8 42 1.75 60
11  Forest Green 36 13 10 13 43 40 3 49 0.63 55
15  Newport 36 12 10 14 32 39 -7 46 0.88 55
19  Oldham 37 9 14 14 44 57 -13 41 1.38 53
18  Carlisle Utd 37 10 12 15 39 56 -17 42 1.25 53
21  Mansfield 36 9 11 16 48 55 -7 38 1.38 52
20  Scunthorpe 37 10 10 17 44 56 -12 40 0.88 48
23  Morecambe 37 7 11 19 35 60 -25 32 1.13 42
22  Macclesfield 37 7 15 15 32 47 -15 32 0.25 34
24  Stevenage 36 3 13 20 24 50 -26 22 0 22

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